Saudi VLCCs Surge as Ras Tanura Reopens After Iran War Shutdown

Charterers hunting June and July liftings and owners with VLCCs in ballast toward the Gulf now confront a sudden reopening of Saudi export terminals that were shut for weeks during the Iran war.

Ras Tanura and Juaymah Flow Again

Saudi Aramco has resumed loadings at the two primary Persian Gulf terminals, sending VLCCs that had been idling in the Gulf of Oman or anchored off Fujairah back into the loading queue. The restart follows the easing of immediate hostilities and the withdrawal of Iranian missile threats that had closed the facilities. Daily export runs are already climbing toward pre-conflict levels of roughly 6.5 million barrels, with at least four VLCCs reported berthing in the first 48 hours.

Premiums Ease, But Not Uniformly

War-risk underwriters have begun trimming additional premiums on Gulf calls, yet the relief is uneven. Hull syndicates quoting for Ras Tanura now post rates around 0.35 percent of hull value for single transits, down from peaks near 0.9 percent, while cover for Bandar Abbas or other Iranian ports remains effectively unavailable. P&I clubs are still requiring enhanced security plans and armed guards for any vessel routing inside the Strait of Hormuz, adding roughly $40,000 per voyage even on the Saudi side.

Charterers Face a Narrow Booking Window

Traders who had diverted cargoes to Red Sea or Mediterranean origins during the closure are now racing to rebook Gulf stems before July programs fill. A 2-million-barrel VLCC fixture from Ras Tanura to Rotterdam this week fixed at Worldscale 92, roughly 15 points above the pre-war average for the same route. Those who wait risk watching the window close again if tensions flare; those who commit early may face demurrage if terminal throughput lags behind announced volumes.

Manning and Crew Exposure

For manning agencies rotating crews through ports such as Dammam or Jubail, the reopening creates immediate pressure to restore normal relief schedules after weeks of extended tours. Filipino and Indian seafarers who refused Gulf contracts during the conflict are now being offered hazard bonuses of $800–$1,200 per month, yet many remain reluctant until three consecutive weeks of incident-free transits are logged. Owners with vessels already inside the Gulf report crew-change delays averaging nine days while agents scramble for available flights and launch slots.

Second-Order Effects on Flag States and Commodity Flows

Panama and Liberia, which together flag more than half the VLCC fleet, are seeing renewed applications for war-risk endorsements as owners reposition tonnage. At the same time, Asian refiners that switched to West African or Brazilian grades during the shutdown are now locking in Saudi term volumes again, shifting perhaps 800,000 barrels per day of Atlantic Basin cargoes back toward the Suez and Hormuz routes. This rebalancing will tighten tonnage supply in the Atlantic and support freight rates on the West Africa–China lane even as Gulf–Asia rates soften.

What to Watch Next

Monitor Aramco’s official July loading program, due for release within the next seven days; any shortfall below 6 million barrels per day will signal either technical restart problems or deliberate restraint that could again lift war-risk premiums within a fortnight.