Eagle Forecast Ledger
Every forecast Eagle makes about its own War-Risk Index, time-stamped when issued, resolved by machine against the public changelog, and scored here in public. Issued forecasts are never edited or deleted. A risk source that shows you its scorecard.
Scorecard
Recording since Sep 5, 2026. Ledger last written Sep 23, 2026 00:21 UTC. Skill above 0% means the model beats the base rate; below 0% means it would have done better to say nothing.
Calibration
| Forecast bin | Forecasts | Mean forecast | Observed frequency | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0%–10% | 15 | 6.7% | 6.7% | 0.0 pts |
| 10%–20% | 20 | 13.7% | 5.0% | -8.7 pts |
| 20%–30% | 1 | 22.0% | 0.0% | -22.0 pts |
| 30%–40% | 1 | 38.0% | 100.0% | +62.0 pts |
| 40%–50% | 4 | 45.3% | 50.0% | +4.7 pts |
| 50%–60% | 6 | 56.0% | 100.0% | +44.0 pts |
| 60%–70% | 8 | 64.0% | 100.0% | +36.0 pts |
| 70%–80% | 5 | 75.2% | 40.0% | -35.2 pts |
| 80%–90% | 22 | 85.6% | 100.0% | +14.4 pts |
| 90%–100% | 2 | 90.0% | 100.0% | +10.0 pts |
A well-calibrated forecaster has observed frequency close to mean forecast in every bin. Positive gap = under-confident; negative = over-confident. Bins with fewer than ~20 forecasts are noisy.
By subject
| Subject | Resolved | Brier | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait | 12 | 0.219 | 7 |
| Bosphorus / Turkish Straits | 12 | 0.243 | 7 |
| Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) | 12 | 0.022 | 26 |
| Panama Canal | 12 | 0.004 | 7 |
| Strait of Hormuz | 12 | 0.018 | 7 |
| Strait of Malacca | 12 | 0.082 | 7 |
| Suez Canal | 12 | 0.090 | 7 |
By question shape
| Shape | Resolved | Brier | Baseline | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Band at an instant | 84 | 0.097 | 0.084 | 68 |
The two shapes are not comparable to each other. Counting questions are only asked when their threshold can be set near a coin flip, so a worse Brier there is the expected price of a harder question — read each line against its own baseline column, not against the other row.
Open forecasts (68)
- Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?
88%baseline 92% (climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Hormuz remains at SEVERE with sustained HIGH signals, supporting headline persistence over the week.
- Strait of Hormuz 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher?
95%baseline 92% (climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Very high recent HIGH-signal count and baseline make SEVERE band likely to hold.
- Suez Canal 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher?
18%baseline 14% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Zero HIGH signals and low baseline indicate low chance of reaching ELEVATED within seven days.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?
68%baseline 63% (climatology-90d) · now ELEVATED · issued · grok-4.3Current ELEVATED band and ongoing HIGH signals support continued elevated status.
- Panama Canal 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?
5%baseline 4% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3No HIGH signals and very low baseline make ELEVATED status unlikely.
- Strait of Malacca 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?
7%baseline 9% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Minimal signals and low baseline point to continued MONITORING band.
- Bosphorus / Turkish Straits 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher?
62%baseline 75% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Recent flips and zero HIGH signals lower odds below the high baseline.
- Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?
88%baseline 93% (climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Current SEVERE driven by sustained Hormuz activity with 462 signals in 7 days supports near-baseline persistence.
- Strait of Hormuz 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher?
90%baseline 93% (climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.312 HIGH signals in last 24 hours and 462 over 7 days indicate continued SEVERE band at the 7-day mark.
- Suez Canal 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher?
12%baseline 14% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Current MONITORING band with only 26 signals over 7 days and zero HIGH signals keeps odds near the low baseline.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?
68%baseline 65% (climatology-90d) · now ELEVATED · issued · grok-4.3Current ELEVATED with 4 HIGH signals in 24 hours and 133 over 7 days supports a modest lift above baseline.
- Panama Canal 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?
5%baseline 4% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Current MONITORING and minimal signals over 7 days align closely with the very low baseline.
- Strait of Malacca 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?
6%baseline 9% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Only one signal in 7 days and current MONITORING band keep probability below the already low baseline.
- Bosphorus / Turkish Straits 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher?
78%baseline 74% (climatology-90d) · now ELEVATED · issued · grok-4.3Current ELEVATED with 3 HIGH signals in 24 hours and 22 over 7 days supports a small increase over baseline.
- Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?
88%baseline 93% (climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Current SEVERE driven by sustained Hormuz signals; recent fluctuations noted but baseline high.
- Strait of Hormuz 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher?
90%baseline 93% (climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Very high recent HIGH-signal count supports continued SEVERE band.
- Suez Canal 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher?
18%baseline 13% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Current low activity and mostly MONITORING state align with low baseline.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?
62%baseline 66% (climatology-90d) · now ELEVATED · issued · grok-4.3Current ELEVATED with moderate signals; baseline near even odds.
- Panama Canal 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?
4%baseline 3% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3No signals and long-term low baseline indicate negligible chance of rise.
- Strait of Malacca 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?
10%baseline 9% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Minimal signals and current MONITORING support near-baseline odds.
- Bosphorus / Turkish Straits 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher?
72%baseline 75% (climatology-90d) · now ELEVATED · issued · grok-4.3Current ELEVATED with ongoing signals keeps probability near baseline.
- Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 27 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?
88%baseline 93% (climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Current SEVERE status with sustained high Hormuz activity supports continuation over the short horizon.
- Strait of Hormuz 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 27 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher?
90%baseline 93% (climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Heavy recent signal volume and current SEVERE band indicate high likelihood of continued alerts.
- Suez Canal 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 27 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher?
15%baseline 13% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Current low band and minimal recent signals align closely with the low historical baseline.
Showing the 24 resolving soonest. The remaining 44 are in the JSON API.
Recently resolved (latest 60)
| Issued | Question | Forecast | Outcome | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 23 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher? | 88% / 92% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.014 | |
Strait of Hormuz · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 23 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher? | 85% / 92% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.022 | |
Suez Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 23 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 18% / 15% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.032 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 23 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher? | 58% / 62% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.176 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 23 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 5% / 4% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.003 | |
Strait of Malacca · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 23 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher? | 9% / 10% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.008 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 23 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher? | 68% / 75% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.102 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 22 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher? | 85% / 92% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.022 | |
Strait of Hormuz · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 22 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher? | 88% / 92% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.014 | |
Suez Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 22 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 22% / 12% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.048 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 22 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher? | 58% / 61% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.176 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 22 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 5% / 4% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.003 | |
Strait of Malacca · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 22 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher? | 8% / 10% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.846 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 22 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher? | 72% / 75% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.078 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 21 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher? | 85% / 92% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.022 | |
Strait of Hormuz · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 21 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher? | 87% / 92% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.017 | |
Suez Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 21 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 18% / 11% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.032 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 21 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher? | 48% / 59% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.270 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 21 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 5% / 4% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.003 | |
Strait of Malacca · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 21 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher? | 9% / 10% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.008 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 21 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher? | 52% / 74% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.230 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 20 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher? | 88% / 91% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.014 | |
Strait of Hormuz · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 20 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher? | 87% / 91% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.017 | |
Suez Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 20 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 15% / 11% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.022 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 20 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher? | 48% / 59% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.230 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 20 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 5% / 4% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.003 | |
Strait of Malacca · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 20 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher? | 13% / 11% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.017 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 20 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher? | 79% / 74% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.624 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 19 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher? | 88% / 91% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.014 | |
Strait of Hormuz · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 19 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher? | 90% / 91% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.010 | |
Suez Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 19 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 12% / 11% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.014 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 19 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher? | 62% / 57% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.144 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 19 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 5% / 4% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.003 | |
Strait of Malacca · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 19 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher? | 10% / 11% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.010 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 19 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher? | 68% / 73% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.102 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 18 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher? | 85% / 90% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.022 | |
Strait of Hormuz · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 18 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher? | 88% / 90% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.014 | |
Suez Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 18 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 18% / 12% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.032 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 18 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher? | 62% / 55% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.144 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 18 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 8% / 5% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.006 | |
Strait of Malacca · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 18 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher? | 10% / 12% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.010 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 18 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher? | 75% / 72% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.063 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 17 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher? | 85% / 90% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.022 | |
Strait of Hormuz · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 17 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher? | 88% / 90% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.014 | |
Suez Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 17 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 18% / 13% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.032 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 17 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher? | 58% / 53% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.176 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 17 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 6% / 5% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.004 | |
Strait of Malacca · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 17 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher? | 11% / 12% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.012 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 17 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher? | 72% / 70% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.518 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 16 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher? | 85% / 89% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.022 | |
Strait of Hormuz · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 16 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher? | 87% / 89% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.017 | |
Suez Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 16 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 18% / 10% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.032 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 16 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher? | 55% / 51% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.203 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 16 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 7% / 5% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.005 | |
Strait of Malacca · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 16 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher? | 15% / 13% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.022 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 16 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher? | 62% / 73% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.144 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 15 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher? | 82% / 89% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.032 | |
Strait of Hormuz · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 15 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher? | 84% / 89% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.026 | |
Suez Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 15 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 12% / 10% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.774 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 15 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher? | 38% / 50% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.384 |
Forecast column reads model / baseline. The full record is in the JSON API.
How this works
- Questions are deterministic. Once a day the desk asks one 7-day question about the headline index and one about each monitored chokepoint, plus a 30-day question for the headline. The target is the subject's own alert level: SEVERE for the headline and for crisis-scale chokepoints, ELEVATED otherwise. Nobody chooses which questions to ask.
- The question is picked to be hard. Each 7-day slot takes one of two shapes. A band question asks whether the subject is at its alert level at a single instant. A counting question asks whether it clears that level on at least N of the 7 daily checks, where N is set so the same question would have resolved YES about half the time over the last 90 days. The desk computes both and takes the counting question when its base rate is at least 10 points closer to 50%, so a subject that sits at one band for months is not scored on a question everyone can already answer. Two guards keep this honest: a threshold may only be set once 30 fully-observed past windows exist, and the 10-point margin stops sampling noise from flipping a subject between shapes from one day to the next. Below either bar the subject keeps the band question.
- The probability comes from a model. An xAI Grok call sees the current bands, the last 7 days of signal counts and the last 30 days of band changes, and returns a probability between 2% and 98% for each question. If the model is unavailable the question is still issued at the baseline and labelled
baseline, so the record has no gaps. - Every question carries a baseline. For a band question, the fraction of the previous 90 days the subject spent at or above the target, from the changelog; with under 7 days of history it is 50% and labelled
uninformed. For a counting question, the share of the previous 90 days' windows that cleared the same threshold. The baseline is the number the model has to beat, and it is stored with the forecast before the outcome exists. - Resolution is mechanical. On every wire cycle the resolver reads the band the site showed at the due instant from the append-only changelog (30-minute granularity). If the changelog cannot answer, the live API is accepted only within 6 hours of the due time; after 72 hours without an observation the question is voided, never guessed. Counting questions are settled from the changelog alone — one live reading cannot stand in for a week of daily checks — and settle early whenever the threshold is already reached or already out of reach.
- Scoring is the Brier score — the squared error of the probability against the 0/1 outcome, averaged. 0 is perfect; 0.25 is what you get by always saying 50%. Skill is 1 − Brier/BaselineBrier over model-issued forecasts. Because the desk deliberately asks the harder of the two available questions, the headline Brier here reads worse than it would against a set of easy questions. That is the point: skill against the baseline is the number that means anything.
What is being forecast: the index itself is a deterministic function of the public wire — a chokepoint shows its alert band exactly when at least one HIGH-severity wire signal matched it in the previous 24 hours. So these are forecasts of an observable public record, including its reporting tempo, not claims about events no one can verify. Questions never concern a named vessel or person; a model rationale that names one is withheld under the house publish gate. Index methodology: how the index is calculated.
Cite this ledger
Eagle Forecast Ledger: Brier 0.097 over 84 resolved forecasts, skill -16% vs base rate. Eagle Intelligence, eagleintelmari.com/forecasts (append-only; retrieved on your access date)
Machine-readable: /api/forecasts (JSON, CORS-open, free). Individual forecasts are addressable by id, e.g. #fc-YYYY-MM-DD-strait-of-hormuz-7d.
Indicative / educational only. The Eagle War-Risk Index and these forecasts are editorial measures for situational awareness — not an insurance quote, premium, routing guidance or financial advice.