Eagle Forecast Ledger
Every forecast Eagle makes about its own War-Risk Index, time-stamped when issued, resolved by machine against the public changelog, and scored here in public. Issued forecasts are never edited or deleted. A risk source that shows you its scorecard.
Scorecard
Recording since Sep 5, 2026. Ledger last written Nov 7, 2026 00:21 UTC. Skill above 0% means the model beats the base rate; below 0% means it would have done better to say nothing.
Calibration
| Forecast bin | Forecasts | Mean forecast | Observed frequency | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0%–10% | 74 | 4.9% | 1.4% | -3.5 pts |
| 10%–20% | 58 | 13.7% | 3.5% | -10.3 pts |
| 20%–30% | 12 | 22.8% | 41.7% | +18.9 pts |
| 30%–40% | 25 | 36.0% | 56.0% | +20.0 pts |
| 40%–50% | 28 | 44.3% | 71.4% | +27.1 pts |
| 50%–60% | 31 | 54.9% | 80.7% | +25.8 pts |
| 60%–70% | 40 | 64.0% | 77.5% | +13.5 pts |
| 70%–80% | 31 | 75.1% | 74.2% | -0.9 pts |
| 80%–90% | 83 | 85.7% | 98.8% | +13.1 pts |
| 90%–100% | 51 | 91.7% | 100.0% | +8.3 pts |
A well-calibrated forecaster has observed frequency close to mean forecast in every bin. Positive gap = under-confident; negative = over-confident. Bins with fewer than ~20 forecasts are noisy.
By subject
| Subject | Resolved | Brier | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) | 91 | 0.024 | 37 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait | 57 | 0.259 | 7 |
| Bosphorus / Turkish Straits | 57 | 0.243 | 7 |
| Panama Canal | 57 | 0.002 | 7 |
| Strait of Hormuz | 57 | 0.014 | 7 |
| Strait of Malacca | 57 | 0.029 | 7 |
| Suez Canal | 57 | 0.211 | 7 |
By question shape
| Shape | Resolved | Brier | Baseline | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Band at an instant | 221 | 0.067 | 0.056 | 51 |
| Days at or above target | 212 | 0.144 | 0.158 | 28 |
The two shapes are not comparable to each other. Counting questions are only asked when their threshold can be set near a coin flip, so a worse Brier there is the expected price of a harder question — read each line against its own baseline column, not against the other row.
Open forecasts (79)
- Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) 30-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?
93%baseline 96% (climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Stable severe headline for weeks and high baseline indicate persistence at the 30-day mark.
- Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) ≥7 of 7 daysresolves
Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?
92%baseline 85% (count-climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Stable severe headline with zero band changes in 30 days and recent windows at maximum count support near-certain continuation.
- Strait of Hormuz ≥7 of 7 daysresolves
Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?
93%baseline 85% (count-climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Current severe band, high recent signal count, and zero changes in 30 days point to sustained level over the window.
- Suez Canal ≥1 of 7 daysresolves
Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them?
40%baseline 54% (count-climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Current monitoring band, low signal volume, and most recent window at zero lower odds below baseline.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?
35%baseline 70% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Current monitoring band, low recent signals, and latest move to monitoring reduce odds below baseline.
- Panama Canal 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?
5%baseline 2% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Baseline already near zero, current monitoring band, and minimal signals keep probability very low.
- Strait of Malacca 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?
3%baseline 5% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Baseline near zero, current monitoring band, and zero signals in past week keep probability minimal.
- Bosphorus / Turkish Straits ≥6 of 7 daysresolves
Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them?
48%baseline 45% (count-climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Frequent recent band changes and current monitoring level offset the recent window at six, holding near baseline.
- Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) 30-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?
88%baseline 96% (climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Baseline already near 1.0 and no evidence of imminent de-escalation from persistent Hormuz signals.
- Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) ≥7 of 7 daysresolves
Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?
90%baseline 85% (count-climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3No band changes in 30 days and recent 7-day window at 7 keep SEVERE headline near-certain through the horizon.
- Strait of Hormuz ≥7 of 7 daysresolves
Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?
93%baseline 85% (count-climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Hundreds of signals and eight HIGH signals in the last day with no band changes sustain the current SEVERE level.
- Suez Canal ≥1 of 7 daysresolves
Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them?
40%baseline 53% (count-climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Current MONITORING, only five signals in seven days, and most recent window at zero lower the odds below the 0.53 baseline.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?
42%baseline 69% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Current MONITORING, low recent signals, and repeated swings back to L2 reduce the chance below the 0.69 baseline.
- Panama Canal 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?
3%baseline 2% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Current MONITORING and only one brief ELEVATED episode in the last 30 days keep the probability near the 0.02 baseline.
- Strait of Malacca 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?
4%baseline 5% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Zero signals in seven days and no band changes recorded leave the probability near the 0.05 baseline.
- Bosphorus / Turkish Straits ≥6 of 7 daysresolves
Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them?
52%baseline 46% (count-climatology-90d) · now ELEVATED · issued · grok-4.3Current ELEVATED with one HIGH signal and recent window at six support a modest lift above the 0.46 baseline.
- Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) 30-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?
92%baseline 96% (climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Stable SEVERE since late September with no reversal signals in evidence raises persistence odds.
- Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) ≥7 of 7 daysresolves
Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?
88%baseline 86% (count-climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3No band changes in 30 days and current SEVERE with ongoing Hormuz activity.
- Strait of Hormuz ≥7 of 7 daysresolves
Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?
90%baseline 86% (count-climatology-90d) · now SEVERE · issued · grok-4.3Persistent SEVERE with 22 HIGH signals in last 24h and no recent band changes.
- Suez Canal ≥1 of 7 daysresolves
Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them?
62%baseline 54% (count-climatology-90d) · now ELEVATED · issued · grok-4.3Recent fluctuations but current ELEVATED and most recent window scored 1.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?
35%baseline 68% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Currently MONITORING after multiple recent downgrades from ELEVATED.
- Panama Canal 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?
4%baseline 2% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3Baseline low and only one brief ELEVATED in last 30 days.
- Strait of Malacca 7-day bandresolves
At 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?
3%baseline 5% (climatology-90d) · now MONITORING · issued · grok-4.3No signals recorded and no band changes in 30 days.
- Bosphorus / Turkish Straits ≥6 of 7 daysresolves
Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them?
52%baseline 46% (count-climatology-90d) · now ELEVATED · issued · grok-4.3Frequent changes but current ELEVATED and most recent window scored 6.
Showing the 24 resolving soonest. The remaining 55 are in the JSON API.
Recently resolved (latest 60)
| Issued | Question | Forecast | Outcome | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 90% / 85% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.010 | |
Strait of Hormuz · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 92% / 85% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.006 | |
Suez Canal · ≥1/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them? | 40% / 55% | YES 1 of 7 days · changelog | 0.360 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher? | 65% / 70% | YES ELEVATED · changelog | 0.122 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 5% / 2% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.003 | |
Strait of Malacca · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher? | 3% / 5% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.001 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · ≥6/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them? | 55% / 44% | YES 6 of 7 days · changelog | 0.203 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · 7d At 14:20 UTC on 6 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher? | 95% / 97% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.003 | |
Strait of Hormuz · 7d At 14:20 UTC on 6 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher? | 96% / 97% | YES SEVERE · changelog | 0.002 | |
Suez Canal · ≥1/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 14:20 UTC on 6 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them? | 25% / 65% | YES 1 of 7 days · changelog | 0.563 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · ≥6/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 14:20 UTC on 6 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them? | 78% / 45% | NO 1 of 7 days · changelog | 0.608 | |
Panama Canal · ≥1/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 14:20 UTC on 6 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them? | 8% / 12% | NO 0 of 7 days · changelog | 0.006 | |
Strait of Malacca · ≥1/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 14:20 UTC on 6 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them? | 10% / 24% | NO 0 of 7 days · changelog | 0.010 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · ≥6/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 14:20 UTC on 6 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them? | 82% / 58% | NO 5 of 7 days · changelog | 0.672 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 5 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 90% / 84% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.010 | |
Strait of Hormuz · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 5 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 92% / 84% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.006 | |
Suez Canal · ≥1/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 5 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them? | 48% / 56% | YES 1 of 7 days · changelog | 0.270 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · ≥5/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 5 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher on at least 5 of them? | 68% / 59% | NO 3 of 7 days · changelog | 0.462 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 5 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 4% / 2% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.002 | |
Strait of Malacca · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 5 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher? | 6% / 5% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.004 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · ≥6/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 5 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them? | 72% / 42% | YES 6 of 7 days · changelog | 0.078 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 4 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 90% / 84% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.010 | |
Strait of Hormuz · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 4 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 92% / 84% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.006 | |
Suez Canal · ≥1/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 4 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them? | 62% / 56% | YES 1 of 7 days · changelog | 0.144 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · ≥5/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 4 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher on at least 5 of them? | 68% / 59% | NO 4 of 7 days · changelog | 0.462 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 4 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 4% / 2% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.002 | |
Strait of Malacca · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 4 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher? | 4% / 5% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.002 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · ≥6/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 4 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them? | 52% / 41% | YES 6 of 7 days · changelog | 0.230 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 90% / 84% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.010 | |
Strait of Hormuz · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 92% / 84% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.006 | |
Suez Canal · ≥1/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them? | 62% / 55% | YES 1 of 7 days · changelog | 0.144 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · ≥5/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher on at least 5 of them? | 64% / 58% | NO 4 of 7 days · changelog | 0.410 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 5% / 2% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.003 | |
Strait of Malacca · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher? | 3% / 5% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.001 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · ≥6/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them? | 55% / 40% | YES 6 of 7 days · changelog | 0.203 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 2 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 88% / 84% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.014 | |
Strait of Hormuz · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 2 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 89% / 84% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.012 | |
Suez Canal · ≥1/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 2 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them? | 38% / 54% | NO 0 of 7 days · changelog | 0.144 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · ≥5/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 2 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher on at least 5 of them? | 42% / 57% | YES 5 of 7 days · changelog | 0.336 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 2 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 4% / 2% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.002 | |
Strait of Malacca · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 2 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher? | 3% / 5% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.001 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · ≥6/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 2 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them? | 52% / 39% | YES 6 of 7 days · changelog | 0.230 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 1 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 90% / 83% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.010 | |
Strait of Hormuz · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 1 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 92% / 83% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.006 | |
Suez Canal · ≥1/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 1 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them? | 48% / 53% | NO 0 of 7 days · changelog | 0.230 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · ≥5/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 1 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher on at least 5 of them? | 72% / 57% | YES 5 of 7 days · changelog | 0.078 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 1 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 5% / 2% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.003 | |
Strait of Malacca · ≥1/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 1 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them? | 10% / 15% | NO 0 of 7 days · changelog | 0.010 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · ≥6/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 1 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them? | 42% / 38% | YES 6 of 7 days · changelog | 0.336 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 31 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 90% / 83% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.010 | |
Strait of Hormuz · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 31 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 92% / 83% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.006 | |
Suez Canal · ≥1/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 31 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them? | 45% / 53% | NO 0 of 7 days · changelog | 0.203 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · ≥5/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 31 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher on at least 5 of them? | 58% / 56% | YES 6 of 7 days · changelog | 0.176 | |
Panama Canal · 7d At 00:16 UTC on 31 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher? | 5% / 2% | NO MONITORING · changelog | 0.003 | |
Strait of Malacca · ≥1/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 31 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them? | 12% / 15% | NO 0 of 7 days · changelog | 0.014 | |
Bosphorus / Turkish Straits · ≥5/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 31 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 5 of them? | 64% / 61% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.130 | |
Eagle War-Risk Index (headline) · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 30 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 88% / 83% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.014 | |
Strait of Hormuz · ≥7/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 30 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them? | 90% / 83% | YES 7 of 7 days · changelog | 0.010 | |
Suez Canal · ≥1/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 30 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them? | 55% / 52% | NO 0 of 7 days · changelog | 0.302 | |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait · ≥5/7d Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 30 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher on at least 5 of them? | 58% / 55% | YES 6 of 7 days · changelog | 0.176 |
Forecast column reads model / baseline. The full record is in the JSON API.
How this works
- Questions are deterministic. Once a day the desk asks one 7-day question about the headline index and one about each monitored chokepoint, plus a 30-day question for the headline. The target is the subject's own alert level: SEVERE for the headline and for crisis-scale chokepoints, ELEVATED otherwise. Nobody chooses which questions to ask.
- The question is picked to be hard. Each 7-day slot takes one of two shapes. A band question asks whether the subject is at its alert level at a single instant. A counting question asks whether it clears that level on at least N of the 7 daily checks, where N is set so the same question would have resolved YES about half the time over the last 90 days. The desk computes both and takes the counting question when its base rate is at least 10 points closer to 50%, so a subject that sits at one band for months is not scored on a question everyone can already answer. Two guards keep this honest: a threshold may only be set once 30 fully-observed past windows exist, and the 10-point margin stops sampling noise from flipping a subject between shapes from one day to the next. Below either bar the subject keeps the band question.
- The probability comes from a model. An xAI Grok call sees the current bands, the last 7 days of signal counts and the last 30 days of band changes, and returns a probability between 2% and 98% for each question. If the model is unavailable the question is still issued at the baseline and labelled
baseline, so the record has no gaps. - Every question carries a baseline. For a band question, the fraction of the previous 90 days the subject spent at or above the target, from the changelog; with under 7 days of history it is 50% and labelled
uninformed. For a counting question, the share of the previous 90 days' windows that cleared the same threshold. The baseline is the number the model has to beat, and it is stored with the forecast before the outcome exists. - Resolution is mechanical. On every wire cycle the resolver reads the band the site showed at the due instant from the append-only changelog (30-minute granularity). If the changelog cannot answer, the live API is accepted only within 6 hours of the due time; after 72 hours without an observation the question is voided, never guessed. Counting questions are settled from the changelog alone — one live reading cannot stand in for a week of daily checks — and settle early whenever the threshold is already reached or already out of reach.
- Scoring is the Brier score — the squared error of the probability against the 0/1 outcome, averaged. 0 is perfect; 0.25 is what you get by always saying 50%. Skill is 1 − Brier/BaselineBrier over model-issued forecasts. Because the desk deliberately asks the harder of the two available questions, the headline Brier here reads worse than it would against a set of easy questions. That is the point: skill against the baseline is the number that means anything.
What is being forecast: the index itself is a deterministic function of the public wire — a chokepoint shows its alert band exactly when at least one HIGH-severity wire signal matched it in the previous 24 hours. So these are forecasts of an observable public record, including its reporting tempo, not claims about events no one can verify. Questions never concern a named vessel or person; a model rationale that names one is withheld under the house publish gate. Index methodology: how the index is calculated.
Cite this ledger
Eagle Forecast Ledger: Brier 0.105 over 433 resolved forecasts, skill 1% vs base rate. Eagle Intelligence, eagleintelmari.com/forecasts (append-only; retrieved on your access date)
Machine-readable: /api/forecasts (JSON, CORS-open, free). Individual forecasts are addressable by id, e.g. #fc-YYYY-MM-DD-strait-of-hormuz-7d.
Indicative / educational only. The Eagle War-Risk Index and these forecasts are editorial measures for situational awareness — not an insurance quote, premium, routing guidance or financial advice.