Eagle War-Risk Index
The current global shipping war-risk level — one citable number, updated live.
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Live breakdown by chokepoint
| Chokepoint | Band | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz | SEVERE | L4/5 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait | ELEVATED | L3/5 |
| Bosphorus / Turkish Straits | ELEVATED | L3/5 |
| Suez Canal | MONITORING | L2/5 |
| Panama Canal | MONITORING | L2/5 |
| Strait of Malacca | MONITORING | L2/5 |
How the index is calculated
Eagle derives a live Eagle Risk Index (1-5) for each monitored maritime chokepoint from fresh incident signals — attacks, strikes, seizures, GPS jamming, closures, and reopening or ceasefire developments. The headline Eagle War-Risk Index is the peak (worst-current) of those six values, so the single number always reflects the most dangerous active corridor. The index is fail-safe: any fresh kinetic event holds the level at SEVERE even when reopening signals appear.
| Level | Band | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| L1/5 | LOW | Routine transit; no current war-risk signals. |
| L2/5 | MONITORING | Reopening/ceasefire signals present, no fresh kinetic activity in 48h. |
| L3/5 | ELEVATED | Active threats or warnings; heightened caution advised. |
| L4/5 | SEVERE | Fresh kinetic activity (attack/strike/seizure) on or near the corridor. |
| L5/5 | CRITICAL | Sustained, corridor-wide kinetic disruption to commercial transits. |
Embed the live index
Put the live War-Risk Index on your README, dashboard, or email signature. The badge renders the current band and level and links back here.
[](https://eagleintelmari.com/war-risk-index)
Cite this index
Suggested reference:
Eagle War-Risk Index: SEVERE (L4/5), as of 2026-09-23 04:45 UTC. Eagle Intelligence, eagleintelmari.com/war-risk-index
- Changelog — the append-only record of every change of the index (verify “since when”)
- Forecast Ledger — Eagle's own time-stamped predictions of where this index will be, resolved by machine and scored in public
- JSON API — the same number, machine-readable, CORS-open
- Methodology — how the level is derived
- AWRP estimator — indicative additional war-risk premium ranges mapped to this index (not a quote)
- IBF designated risk areas — Warlike Operations Area / High Risk Area terms that affect crew pay
- Is Hormuz open? — live Strait of Hormuz transit status
Frequently asked
What is the global shipping war-risk level today?
The Eagle War-Risk Index is currently SEVERE (level 4 of 5) as of 2026-09-23 04:45 UTC. This reflects the worst-current war-risk level across the world's six monitored maritime chokepoints, presently driven by the Strait of Hormuz.
How is the Eagle War-Risk Index calculated?
Eagle continuously derives a live Eagle Risk Index (1-5) for each monitored chokepoint from fresh maritime-incident signals. The headline War-Risk Index is the peak (worst-current) of those six values, so the single number always reflects the most dangerous active corridor.
Which chokepoints does the index cover?
The six monitored corridors: Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Panama Canal, Strait of Malacca, Bosphorus / Turkish Straits.
Is the Eagle War-Risk Index an insurance quote?
No. It is an editorial, indicative measure of maritime war-risk level for situational awareness only — not an insurance quote, premium, or financial advice. Consult your underwriter or P&I club.
Indicative / educational only. The Eagle War-Risk Index is an editorial measure of maritime war-risk level for situational awareness — not an insurance quote, premium, or financial advice. Consult your underwriter or P&I club.
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