Eagle War-Risk Index
The current global shipping war-risk level — one citable number, updated live.
📅 Get the Weekly War-Risk Briefing — every chokepoint, the week's flagged signals →
Live breakdown by chokepoint
| Chokepoint | Band | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz | SEVERE | L4/5 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait | ELEVATED | L3/5 |
| Bosphorus / Turkish Straits | ELEVATED | L3/5 |
| Suez Canal | MONITORING | L2/5 |
| Panama Canal | MONITORING | L2/5 |
| Strait of Malacca | MONITORING | L2/5 |
How the index is calculated
Eagle derives an Eagle Risk Index band for each of six monitored chokepoints by counting wire items that match the corridor's place terms and carry HIGH severity in the previous 24 hours. A non-crisis corridor shows ELEVATED when at least one such item matched and MONITORING otherwise. The Strait of Hormuz is on a declared-crisis scale: SEVERE when at least one such item matched, ELEVATED otherwise, so it never falls below ELEVATED. Only Hormuz can reach SEVERE. A HIGH item is any matching headline the pipeline grades HIGH; it is not a confirmed kinetic event on the corridor. No reopening or ceasefire signal is read. LOW and CRITICAL are reserved and not currently produced. The headline Eagle War-Risk Index is the peak of the six bands.
| Level | Band | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| L1/5 | LOW | Reserved. Not currently produced by the index. |
| L2/5 | MONITORING | Non-crisis corridor: no HIGH-severity wire item matched it in the previous 24h. |
| L3/5 | ELEVATED | Non-crisis corridor: at least one HIGH-severity wire item matched it in the previous 24h. Crisis corridor (Hormuz): the floor, shown when no HIGH item matched in 24h. |
| L4/5 | SEVERE | Crisis corridor (Hormuz) only: at least one HIGH-severity wire item matched it in the previous 24h. |
| L5/5 | CRITICAL | Reserved. Not currently produced by the index. |
Embed the live index
Put the live War-Risk Index on your README, dashboard, or email signature. The badge renders the current band and level and links back here.
[](https://eagleintelmari.com/war-risk-index)
Cite this index
Suggested reference:
Eagle War-Risk Index: SEVERE (L4/5), as of 2026-11-07 06:54 UTC. Eagle Intelligence, eagleintelmari.com/war-risk-index
- Changelog — the append-only record of every change of the index (verify “since when”)
- Forecast Ledger — Eagle's own time-stamped predictions of where this index will be, resolved by machine and scored in public
- JSON API — the same number, machine-readable, CORS-open
- Methodology — how the level is derived
- AWRP estimator — indicative additional war-risk premium ranges mapped to this index (not a quote)
- IBF designated risk areas — Warlike Operations Area / High Risk Area terms that affect crew pay
- Is Hormuz open? — live Strait of Hormuz transit status
Frequently asked
What is the global shipping war-risk level today?
The Eagle War-Risk Index is currently SEVERE (level 4 of 5) as of 2026-11-07 06:54 UTC. This reflects the worst-current war-risk level across the world's six monitored maritime chokepoints, presently driven by the Strait of Hormuz.
How is the Eagle War-Risk Index calculated?
Eagle continuously derives a live Eagle Risk Index (1-5) for each monitored chokepoint from fresh maritime-incident signals. The headline War-Risk Index is the peak (worst-current) of those six values, so the single number always reflects the most dangerous active corridor.
Which chokepoints does the index cover?
The six monitored corridors: Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Panama Canal, Strait of Malacca, Bosphorus / Turkish Straits.
Is the Eagle War-Risk Index an insurance quote?
No. It is an editorial, indicative measure of maritime war-risk level for situational awareness only — not an insurance quote, premium, or financial advice. Consult your underwriter or P&I club.
Indicative / educational only. The Eagle War-Risk Index is an editorial measure of maritime war-risk level for situational awareness — not an insurance quote, premium, or financial advice. Consult your underwriter or P&I club.
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