Gulf VLCCs Resume Loadings as Hormuz Flare-Up Pauses

For VLCC owners and energy traders with cargoes in the Persian Gulf, the live decision is whether to keep vessels on Hormuz routing or pay the Cape diversion premium after four VLCCs loaded at Ras Tanura and two Iranian-flagged sisters cleared the strait over the weekend.

Ras Tanura Keeps Four VLCCs Moving

LSEG tracking shows a fourth 2-million-barrel VLCC began loading at the Saudi terminal on Monday despite the Sunday helicopter crash that killed 14 people. Three earlier units have already gone dark after departure, a tactic that removes AIS coverage for the 150-nautical-mile transit to open water. One of those vessels reappeared on Monday east of the strait and is now bound for Japan. The pattern indicates Aramco is prioritising throughput over visibility, leaving hull insurers to assess whether dark transits qualify as enhanced-risk voyages under current policy wordings.

Iran Exploits 60-Day Waiver Window

Windward and Kpler data confirm simultaneous loadings at both Kharg Island berths on Saturday for the first time in nearly a week. Iranian-flagged VLCCs Dan and Hawk entered the strait the same day carrying sanctioned crude now temporarily authorised for export. Eight million barrels of Emirati and Qatari crude also cleared on four additional VLCCs. For charterers, the waiver creates a narrow arbitrage window before any snap-back; owners face the choice of accepting Iranian-flag risk or demanding fresh letters of indemnity that may not survive a policy review.

LNG Flow Holds Steady from Qatar and UAE

Ballast LNG carriers reappeared west of the strait on 26 June after going dark, while two loaded units exited. QatarEnergy’s Al Kharaitiyat is already en-route to Kuwait and Al Kharsaah awaits orders off Ras Laffan. ADNOC’s Mraweh, loaded at Das Island on 21 June, remains on schedule for Dahej arrival on 5 July. These movements show that LNG charterers are treating the waterway as operationally open even while crude operators adopt stealth tactics.

Brent’s 10.6 % Drop Reveals Uneven-Reopening Pricing

The third consecutive weekly decline in Brent reflects market acceptance that loadings can continue at reduced but non-zero volumes. IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore noted that current prices embed a downward bias provided the strait experiences only intermittent closures. A single renewed exchange of fire, however, would re-price the barrel sharply higher, exposing traders who have already sold forward without war-risk clauses.

P&I Clubs and Flag Registries Brace for Claims

The weekend container-ship and tanker attacks have already triggered the first calls for additional premiums on Gulf entries. Clubs writing Iranian and Saudi tonnage are reviewing whether dark-transit AIS gaps constitute a breach of ordinary trading warranties. Flag states such as Panama and Liberia, which together control a large share of the VLCC fleet, may soon face pressure to issue circulars advising masters on when to disable transponders without voiding cover.

What Traders Should Watch Next

Monitor any fresh US-Iran statement after 3 July; a confirmed extension of the 60-day waiver would keep Iranian VLCCs visible and reduce dark-steaming incidents, while any reported strike inside the strait would likely halt all non-escorted transits within 48 hours.