US Container Imports Set to Slide Through Mid-2026 as Tariff Drag Compounds Hormuz Disruption

American container ports are heading into the traditionally busy spring season facing a problem they have not seen in this combination before: demand that is falling because of tariffs and supply routes that are fractured because of war.

The National Retail Federation's Global Port Tracker, produced in partnership with Hackett Associates, projects April imports at roughly 2 million TEU — a decline of between 7% and 11% year-over-year depending on the forecast vintage. The first half of 2026 is expected to total approximately 12.2 million TEU, down around 2.5% from the same period in 2025, extending a slide that began in the fourth quarter of last year as the full weight of Liberation Day tariffs settled across US-China trade.

"Tariffs have brought a global change in trade relations," NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold said in the federation's March release. The numbers bear that out. US imports from China have dropped roughly 28% since the tariffs took effect in April 2025, according to data compiled by Freightos and the Center for American Progress. That decline has not been fully offset by trade diversion — though Southeast Asian origins including Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand have picked up share, the net volume entering US ports is still lower.

Drewry's World Container Index, the benchmark composite for spot container freight rates, sat unchanged at $2,287 per 40-foot equivalent unit as of April 2, reflecting the demand softness. Rates on the key Shanghai-to-Los Angeles corridor dipped 1% to $2,663, while Shanghai-to-New York edged up 1% to $3,434. The relative stability masks a growing tension: carriers are simultaneously pushing for emergency bunker surcharges linked to the Hormuz crisis even as underlying cargo demand weakens.

That tension is visible in the rate structure. Maersk's Emergency Bunker Surcharge — introduced globally on March 25 at up to $400 per container on long-haul routes and $600 for refrigerated units — has been contested by the Federal Maritime Commission, which twice rejected the carrier's request to waive the statutory 30-day notice period. FMC Chair Laura DiBella said the carrier had not demonstrated sufficient cost documentation. Meanwhile, CMA CGM and Ocean Network Express have rolled out their own Peak Season Surcharges and inland fuel charges across multiple trade lanes.

The result is a market pulling in two directions. Cargo owners face rising per-unit costs from surcharges and rerouting premiums, even as total volumes contract. Xeneta's 2026 Ocean Outlook had warned of exactly this dynamic — a structural overcapacity of roughly 1.4 million TEU in the global fleet colliding with episodic disruptions that temporarily tighten effective capacity on specific corridors.

Drewry expects spot rates to increase in the coming weeks as bunker cost pressures intensify. Fuel availability at key Asian hubs — Singapore and several Chinese ports — is tightening as the Hormuz disruption redirects refinery output and lengthens supply chains for marine fuels. Carriers are responding with slow steaming, alternative refueling strategies, and the emergency surcharges that regulators are now scrutinizing.

What this means for operators: The H1 2026 import decline is structural, driven by tariff-adjusted sourcing decisions that will not reverse quickly even if trade policy shifts. But the cost environment is anything but soft — surcharges, war-risk premiums, and bunker volatility are layering onto a market where volumes cannot support them. Shippers with flexibility should lock in contract rates before carrier surcharge programs fully take effect; those dependent on spot markets should budget for 10–15% cost increases through midyear despite the weak volume backdrop.