Five-Strait Scorecard — Day 12 Adjournment, Management Plan Confirmed ()

Global Maritime Risk Index: 9.2 (↑ from 9.1)

The tick reflects the reframing: the Hormuz toll regime is not a proposal, it is a four-week-old regime formally codified in a Strait of Hormuz Management Plan approved March 30-31. TRM Labs and Chainalysis are independently confirming the operational baseline. The Global Index rises to 9.2 because the structural state of the most important maritime chokepoint is now known to be a tier-discriminated sovereign-operated toll plaza with a documented financial infrastructure, rather than a standoff that might resolve with the ceasefire. This is a one-click worse baseline than assumed.

Strait of Hormuz — 9.6 ↑

Status: Management Plan operational since mid-March. Primary settlement rail is yuan via Kunlun Bank on CIPS (outside SWIFT). Secondary rail is Bitcoin/USDT. Islamabad Day 12 adjourned with no joint statement. Pakistan 'modest goal' framing fully held. 5-provision shipping scorecard closes 0/5: no inspection protocol, no insurance trigger, no toll structure agreement, no crew passage guarantee, no PSC moratorium.

Top factors:

• TRM Labs confirms $2M/ship tolls collected for 4 weeks (mid-March to present)
• Iran's Strait of Hormuz Management Plan formally approved March 30-31
• Primary rail: Chinese yuan via Kunlun Bank + CIPS (People's Bank of China)
• Chainalysis: IRGC already ~50% of Iran's $7.8B 2025 crypto ecosystem
• Islamabad Day 12 adjourned with no joint communique
• Pakistan 'modest goal' framing proved exactly right
• Transit: Selective — handful per day to Iran-favored flag states
• Insurance: 5-10% hull value, Chubb-led $40B backstop not moving premiums
• East-West pipeline still degraded, -700K bpd throughput loss
• Dated Brent $131.97 vs June futures $96.51 — $35 gap
• Ceasefire clause dispute unresolved: 'without limitation, including tolls'
• 5,601 Filipinos in PG + 940 in GoO aboard 470 vessels
• P7.3B PHP repatriation funding need

Signal to watch overnight: Treasury / OFAC movement on Kunlun Bank or CIPS. Any fresh designation targeting the yuan rail specifically would reframe the Week-2 diplomatic position from 'Iran must drop the toll' to 'the US is asking China to shut its own settlement system.' Probability of such a designation in the next 72 hours: <15%, but the consequence of it is 9+ on the Global Index.

Bab el-Mandeb — 8.5 ↔

Status: Houthis still have not resumed attacks on commercial shipping since the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire. European Red Sea Task Force remains in elevated posture. ~30 Saudi tankers concentrated near Yanbu inside Houthi strike range with the East-West pipeline still degraded. The April 7 Reuters Iranian source quote — 'if situation gets out of control, Iran's allies will also close Bab el-Mandeb' — remains the operational framing.

Top factors:

• Red Sea Task Force in elevated posture
• ~30 Saudi tankers concentrated near Yanbu inside Houthi strike range
• East-West pipeline still degraded (-700K bpd throughput)
• Reuters Iranian source dual-chokepoint quote still operative
• Houthi closure threat remains declared but not kinetic
• MARAD 2026-006 active
• BEM 'trump card' framing (Jerusalem Post)
• Gaza ceasefire holding since Oct 2025 — rhetorical posture elevated

Signal to watch overnight: Any Houthi statement referencing specific vessels, specific nationalities, or specific timing windows. A generic 'closure is among our options' statement does not move the score; a specific 'we will engage vessels under flag X beginning date Y' would move it to 9.0.

Suez Canal — 5.2 ↑

Status: Traffic still 60% below normal. Container transits -86%. 117 safe days since last Houthi attack. Houthi explicit BEM closure threat raises Suez reversal risk — the recovery template is contingent on BEM staying quiet, and the current elevated posture threatens that. Cape route remains sticky. Operators not committing to Suez restart without firm BEM guarantees.

Top factors:

• Hormuz recovery template
• Cape route sticky
• Container -86%
• Houthi BEM closure threat — reversal risk
• 117 safe days
• BEM score 8.5

Signal to watch overnight: Any major carrier (Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) committing to or pulling back from Suez routing calls for the week ahead. Those commitments are more operationally meaningful than official statements from the SCA.

Strait of Malacca — 4.5 ↔

Status: Operating near capacity, annual transits ~94,000. Singapore Maritime Week April 20-24 theme 'Actions Meet Ambition' — T-9 days. Hamburg Maritime Forum April 21-22 concurrent T-10. Sea-Air-Space April 19-22 T-8. MEPC 84 April 27 T-16 — NZF adoption expected to fail again under US pressure, postponed to October 2026.

Top factors:

• Capacity pressure near 94,000 annual transits
• Taiwan defense posture
• SMW T-9 'Actions Meet Ambition'
• Hamburg Forum T-10
• Sea-Air-Space T-8
• MEPC 84 T-16 — NZF adoption expected to fail
• Convergence Week T-9 entry

Signal to watch: Pre-session MEPC 84 paper releases. IMO document packet typically goes live ~10 days before the session, meaning paper releases should begin appearing T-6 onward. The presence or absence of a NZF-revision paper will signal whether the October postponement is baked in or whether a last-minute save is being attempted.

Panama Canal — 3.0 ↓

Status: Full operational capacity. Drought restrictions lifted. 34-36 daily slots. USTR port fees suspended until November 2026. US container imports down 8.1% year-over-year. China Merchants $1.24B VLCC order continues scheduled deliveries.

Top factors:

• Normal operations
• USTR fees suspended
• Import decline 8.1% YoY

Signal to watch: Nothing meaningful for the 48-hour window. Panama is the control case — a functioning chokepoint. Score remains 3.0.

Convergence Week calendar (T-9 to T-16)

• T-9: Singapore Maritime Week opens April 20 — 'Actions Meet Ambition,' 20th edition
• T-8: Sea-Air-Space symposium April 19-22 (military-adjacent policy)
• T-10: Hamburg Maritime Forum April 21-22
• T-13: Ceasefire 2-week expiry ~April 21
• T-16: MEPC 84 opens April 27 — NZF adoption decision, US pressure expected to force October postponement

operator read for Sunday Asia open

1. The Management Plan is now the known structural state of Hormuz. Stop modeling the crisis as a standoff awaiting a diplomatic breakthrough; start modeling it as an operational regime awaiting a formal recognition.

2. Front-month Brent will test $95-98 on Monday. The dated-vs-futures gap of ~$35 is the actual signal. Paper traders discount the diplomacy; physical cargo buyers price the regime.

3. The ceasefire text dispute — 'without limitation, including tolls' — is unresolved, and the US position has not yet reconciled the crypto rail question with the yuan rail question. Expect Treasury-led clarification early in Week 2.

4. No new Houthi kinetic activity expected in the 48-hour window. BEM stays 8.5 pending a specific escalation trigger.

5. MEPC 84 paper releases are the next piece of substantive regulatory news; expect them T-6 onward.

Scorecard close: Global 9.2. Hormuz 9.6. BEM 8.5. Suez 5.2. Malacca 4.5. Panama 3.0. 5-provision shipping checklist: 0/5. Convergence Week T-9. Ceasefire Day 12 adjourned without joint statement.