Five-Strait Scorecard: Day 56 — Dual Blockade, $106 Oil, Global Risk 9.7

Global Maritime Risk Index: 9.7 (↑ from 9.2)

Day 56 of the Middle East conflict. April 25, 2026.

HORMUZ — 9.9 (↑ from 9.6) — CATASTROPHIC

Status: Dual naval blockade. US blocks Iranian ports (April 13). Iran re-closes Hormuz (April 18). Tit-for-tat ship seizures. Trump 'shoot and kill' mine-laying order (April 23).

• Traffic: 95% below pre-war 178 ships/day
• Oil: Brent $106.01 (+$10 since April 11)
• Insurance: 1% hull value per 7-day policy; double-digit millions per trip
• Seized vessels: MSC Francesca + Epaminondas (Iran), Touska (US)
• 15 Filipino seafarers on Iran-seized vessels
• 3,500 Filipinos still stranded; 1,161 exited
• Iran blockade: $400M/day cost, oil well damage by April 26
• US military planning Hormuz defense strikes if ceasefire fails
• Recovery: July for 90% flows + 2 months to refineries

Ceasefire status: Extended indefinitely but contradicted by blockade + shoot-kill order. Not functioning as ceasefire.

BAB EL-MANDEB — 9.0 (↑ from 8.5) — CRITICAL

Status: USS George HW Bush forced 6,000-mile Africa detour. No US carrier BEM transit since Dec 2023. Houthis joined war March 28. Iran pushing renewed Red Sea campaign.

• Carrier denied: USS Bush (5,000 sailors, CAW-7) routed around Cape of Good Hope
• Houthi threat: BEM closure 'likely' if escalation continues
• European Red Sea Task Force on elevated alert
• Yanbu pipeline still degraded: 700K bpd offline
• Dual-chokepoint correlation: 0.7+ (30% dual-closure probability vs 10% if independent)

SUEZ — 6.0 (↑ from 5.2) — HIGH

Status: Recovery stalled. BEM elevated to 9.0. Any Houthi commercial attack reverses all progress instantly.

• Traffic still 60%+ below normal
• Container transits still 86% down
• Cape route firmly entrenched
• 131 safe days but structural risk rising

MALACCA — 4.5 (stable) — MODERATE

Status: Near capacity. Singapore Maritime Week completed April 24. MEPC 84 April 27-28 imminent.

PANAMA — 3.0 (stable) — LOW

Status: Full operations. Only major chokepoint unaffected.

The 14-Day Escalation Timeline

Operator Checklist

1. Do NOT plan Hormuz transit — 95% traffic reduction, active seizures, shoot-kill ROE
2. Price BEM at 9.0 — US carrier denied transit, Houthi activation imminent
3. Cape route is baseline — not alternative, not contingency, BASELINE
4. Insurance budget 1%+ hull value per week — if coverage available at all
5. Filipino crew on seized vessels — DMW/DFA coordinating, no timeline for release
6. Watch April 26 — Iran oil well damage deadline creates hard escalation trigger
7. MEPC 84 April 27-28 — IMO meets during worst maritime crisis since WWII

Eagle Intelligence — Five-Strait Scorecard. April 25, 2026. Next scorecard in 2 hours.