War Risk
Five-Strait Scorecard: Day 56 — Dual Blockade, $106 Oil, Global Risk 9.7
The Global Maritime Risk Index hits 9.7 as the Hormuz crisis escalates to a dual naval blockade with ship seizures, shoot-kill orders, and a US supercarrier denied Bab el-Mandeb transit.
Eagle IntelligenceDrafted by the Eagle desk system; no individual review recordedRecorded urgency at publication: High. Not a live alert.
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Global Maritime Risk Index: 9.7 (↑ from 9.2)
Day 56 of the Middle East conflict. April 25, 2026.
HORMUZ — 9.9 (↑ from 9.6) — CATASTROPHIC
Status: Dual naval blockade. US blocks Iranian ports (April 13). Iran re-closes Hormuz (April 18). Tit-for-tat ship seizures. Trump 'shoot and kill' mine-laying order (April 23).
- Traffic: 95% below pre-war 178 ships/day
- Oil: Brent $106.01 (+$10 since April 11)
- Insurance: 1% hull value per 7-day policy; double-digit millions per trip
- Seized vessels: MSC Francesca + Epaminondas (Iran), Touska (US)
- 15 Filipino seafarers on Iran-seized vessels
- 3,500 Filipinos still stranded; 1,161 exited
- Iran blockade: $400M/day cost, oil well damage by April 26
- US military planning Hormuz defense strikes if ceasefire fails
- Recovery: July for 90% flows + 2 months to refineries
Ceasefire status: Extended indefinitely but contradicted by blockade + shoot-kill order. Not functioning as ceasefire.
BAB EL-MANDEB — 9.0 (↑ from 8.5) — CRITICAL
Status: USS George HW Bush forced 6,000-mile Africa detour. No US carrier BEM transit since Dec 2023. Houthis joined war March 28. Iran pushing renewed Red Sea campaign.
- Carrier denied: USS Bush (5,000 sailors, CAW-7) routed around Cape of Good Hope
- Houthi threat: BEM closure 'likely' if escalation continues
- European Red Sea Task Force on elevated alert
- Yanbu pipeline still degraded: 700K bpd offline
- Dual-chokepoint correlation: 0.7+ (30% dual-closure probability vs 10% if independent)
SUEZ — 6.0 (↑ from 5.2) — HIGH
Status: Recovery stalled. BEM elevated to 9.0. Any Houthi commercial attack reverses all progress instantly.
- Traffic still 60%+ below normal
- Container transits still 86% down
- Cape route firmly entrenched
- 131 safe days but structural risk rising
MALACCA — 4.5 (stable) — MODERATE
Status: Near capacity. Singapore Maritime Week completed April 24. MEPC 84 April 27-28 imminent.
PANAMA — 3.0 (stable) — LOW
Status: Full operations. Only major chokepoint unaffected.
The 14-Day Escalation Timeline
| Date | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| April 12 | Islamabad talks collapse | No deal on Hormuz/nuclear |
| April 13 | US naval blockade of Iran | Full coastline, $400M/day |
| April 17 | Iran briefly reopens Hormuz | 24-hour window |
| April 18 | Iran re-closes Hormuz | Fired on ship attempting transit |
| April 19-20 | US seizes Touska | 900ft Iranian container ship |
| April 21 | Trump extends ceasefire | Indefinite, maintains blockade |
| April 22 | Iran seizes MSC Francesca + Epaminondas | 15 Filipino crew, bridge damage |
| April 23 | Trump 'shoot and kill' order | Mine-laying boats, minesweepers tripled |
| April 25 | Oil hits $106/bbl | +$10 in 14 days |
Operator Checklist
- Do NOT plan Hormuz transit — 95% traffic reduction, active seizures, shoot-kill ROE
- Price BEM at 9.0 — US carrier denied transit, Houthi activation imminent
- Cape route is baseline — not alternative, not contingency, BASELINE
- Insurance budget 1%+ hull value per week — if coverage available at all
- Filipino crew on seized vessels — DMW/DFA coordinating, no timeline for release
- Watch April 26 — Iran oil well damage deadline creates hard escalation trigger
- MEPC 84 April 27-28 — IMO meets during worst maritime crisis since WWII
Eagle Intelligence — Five-Strait Scorecard. April 25, 2026. Next scorecard in 2 hours.
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