Five-Strait Scorecard — April 10: Ceasefire Day 9, Islamabad Eve, Convergence T-5

Global Maritime Risk Index: 8.9/10 (↔ unchanged)

Strait of Hormuz — 9.5/10 (↑ critical)

Transit: ZERO on Day 9. Bloomberg: only 3 ships left Gulf on April 9. 800+ freighters trapped inside. Normal: 135/day. Islamabad: T-0. Vance + Witkoff + Kushner IN Islamabad. Talks Saturday April 11. Pakistan's two-phase framework revealed — Iran WON'T open Hormuz under Phase 1 alone. Insurance: War risk 50-60x pre-crisis. Lloyd's JWC conflict zone designation. $10-14M per VLCC transit. Mines: 5,000-6,000 Iranian mines deployed. US Navy MCM capability retired Sept 2025. Only 3 untested LCS remain. Humanitarian: Day 84 avg / Day 122 longest stranding. 6,541 Filipinos stranded. maritime employment contract 120-day cliff in ~4 days. Shipping provisions: 0/5.

Bab el-Mandeb — 8.3/10 (↑ critical)

Attacks: Triple attack April 10 — MSC Gina (2nd time), MSC Darwin, US destroyer. Highest-tempo day since war began. Maersk Yorktown (US-flagged) missile intercepted April 9. MSC Orion attacked 600km offshore — furthest Houthi strike EVER. Assessment: Washington Institute confirms 'strengthened Houthi control over Red Sea transit.' gCaptain: 'Red Sea Corridor Slips Back Into Crisis.' Iran pushing renewed campaign contingent on escalation. Saudi Yanbu: 5M bpd diverted to Red Sea = +21% BEM traffic = expanded target set. Combined risk: 48% of global chokepoint trade at dual-chokepoint risk.

Suez Canal — 5.0/10 (↔ elevated)

Traffic: Still 60% below normal, 114 safe days. Container transits down 86%. Cape route sticky. Risk: Houthi reactivation — if BEM closure materializes, Suez becomes dual-risk. Triple attack day raises alert level.

Strait of Malacca — 4.5/10 (↔ moderate)

Operations: Near capacity. No incidents. Calendar: SMW April 20-24 (T-9). China port fees April 17 (T-5). MEPC 84 April 27 (T-15).

Panama Canal — 3.0/10 (↓ low)

Operations: Full capacity restored. 34-36 daily slots. Drought restrictions lifted. Trade: US imports down 8.1% YoY. USTR port fees suspended until Nov 2026.

Convergence Week: T-5

Five critical events cluster in the next 5-11 days:

This is the most information-dense week of the Hormuz crisis. Every variable — diplomatic, legal, military, commercial — converges simultaneously.

Key Metric Changes Since Last Scorecard

• Ceasefire: Day 8 → Day 9 (+1)
• Stranding: 83d/121d → 84d/122d (+1/+1)
• maritime employment contract cliff: ~5 days → ~4 days (closing)
• Ceasefire remaining: 7 days → 6 days (closing)
• Transit: Zero → Zero (unchanged)
• Oil: $97-98 → $95-98 WTI (slight easing)
• Houthi: Triple attack confirmed — highest tempo
• NEW: Pakistan two-phase framework revealed — Iran Phase 1 ≠ reopening
• NEW: Bloomberg confirms 800+ freighters stuck, only 3 leaving April 9

Eagle Intelligence Five-Strait Scorecard — Updated April 10, 2026 05:30 PHT. Sources: Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, CFR, Insurance Journal, CNBC, gCaptain, Washington Institute, RNZ, EIA.