Suez Containership Flows Stall at 46 Vessels in Two Weeks

Containership operators have again pulled back from the Suez Canal, sending only 46 vessels through the waterway in the fortnight ending 31 May. The pause in recovery signals that commercial calculations still tilt toward caution even as attack frequency in the Red Sea has eased.

Why the Uptick Fizzled

Drewry’s tracker recorded 20 containerships in the week to 24 May and 26 the following week. These figures remain well below the 50-plus weekly average seen before the Houthi campaign began. Carriers appear to be testing the route selectively rather than committing full services, keeping most Asia-Europe strings routed around the Cape.

Charterers Lock in Longer Voyages

Time-charter contracts signed in recent months still embed the Cape routing assumption for most east-west loops. Charterers who shifted to 35-40 day longer passages are reluctant to renegotiate mid-contract when bunker prices and schedule reliability remain uncertain. The result is a two-tier market: spot fixtures occasionally test Suez, while period tonnage stays committed to the southern route.

Insurers Maintain Elevated War-Risk Premiums

Hull and war-risk underwriters have not materially reduced additional premiums for Red Sea transits. Typical quotes still range between 0.3 and 0.6 percent of hull value for a single passage, enough to erase most of the distance saving for vessels valued above $80 million. P&I clubs continue to advise members that any return must be accompanied by enhanced armed-guard and voyage-planning protocols.

Crew and Seafarer Sentiment

Seafarer unions and welfare organisations report persistent reluctance among ratings to accept Suez voyages without substantial hazard pay. Several major container lines have quietly offered retention bonuses or route-specific danger money to maintain crewing levels on vessels that do transit. This human-factor friction adds another layer of operational drag beyond pure economics.

European Port Congestion and Schedule Ripple Effects

The sustained Cape routing continues to compress vessel availability on the North Europe and Mediterranean ranges. Average delays at Rotterdam and Hamburg have lengthened by 4-6 days compared with 2023 baselines as larger vessels arrive in clusters after the longer voyage. Feeder networks feeding smaller Baltic and West African ports face secondary delays that compound inventory costs for just-in-time manufacturers.

Three Forward Scenarios

A sustained lull in Houthi activity through July could lift weekly Suez containership counts above 60 by late summer if premiums ease. Conversely, a single high-profile attack would likely freeze the modest rebound and push more tonnage back to the Cape. The middle path—gradual premium compression without full normalisation—would see selective service-by-service returns while most volume remains routed south until Q4 2026 at the earliest.