The Second Chokepoint: How Houthi Threats at Bab el-Mandeb Could Double the Crisis

The maritime world has spent five weeks fixated on the Strait of Hormuz. It may now need to watch a second gate.

Since March 28, when Yemen's Houthi movement launched missiles toward Israel and declared solidarity with Iran's war effort, the strategic calculus in global shipping has shifted dramatically. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait --- the 20-mile-wide corridor between Yemen and Djibouti that funnels Red Sea traffic toward the Suez Canal --- is now under explicit threat from a battle-tested adversary that spent much of 2024 proving it could disrupt commercial shipping at scale.

A Chokepoint Already Under Strain

The irony is that Bab el-Mandeb has been getting busier, not quieter, since the Hormuz crisis began. Over the first 28 days of March, crude oil transiting the strait jumped 21 percent compared with February, according to vessel-tracking data. The reason is straightforward: Saudi Arabia has diverted nearly five million barrels per day to its Red Sea export terminal at Yanbu, bypassing the Persian Gulf entirely. That rerouting, designed to keep oil flowing despite Hormuz restrictions, has made Bab el-Mandeb the single most consequential energy corridor on the planet.

If the Houthis follow through on their threats, the math becomes devastating. Hormuz handles roughly 20 percent of global oil shipments; Bab el-Mandeb carries an additional 10 to 12 percent under normal conditions, now swollen by Saudi diversions. A simultaneous closure of both straits would choke off approximately 30 percent of the world's seaborne oil --- a scenario without precedent in the post-war era.

Staged Escalation, Not Bluff

Mohammed Mansour, the Houthis' deputy information minister, has framed the group's approach as deliberate and phased. The Houthis are "conducting this battle in stages, and closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait is among our options," he told local media in late March. Intelligence reporting suggests Iran is pushing the rebels to prepare for a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping, contingent on further US escalation.

The threat carries weight because of precedent. Between late 2023 and mid-2025, Houthi attacks on commercial vessels forced every major container line to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding two weeks and tens of thousands of dollars per voyage. The group demonstrated the ability to strike targets with anti-ship ballistic missiles, drones, and unmanned surface vehicles --- capabilities that remain intact.

Since entering the current conflict on March 28, the Houthis have also been advancing toward rival-held territory on Yemen's southwest coast, which would give them elevated launch positions overlooking the strait.

European Forces Prepare

The European Union's Operation EUNAVFOR Aspides, the Red Sea task force established in 2024 to protect commercial shipping, has signaled readiness for a return to active defense operations. Multiple European navies maintain frigates and destroyers in the region, though their ability to guarantee safe passage through a contested chokepoint remains limited.

For shipowners and operators, the calculus is already changing. MSC, the world's largest container carrier, has paused all bookings for the Middle East region and instructed its masters to avoid both Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz. Other major lines are expected to follow if the threat level escalates.

What Comes Next

The critical variable is whether Gulf states --- particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE --- are drawn deeper into the conflict. The Houthis have explicitly conditioned strait closure on Gulf state participation in strikes against Iran. For now, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have maintained cautious neutrality, but the pressure from Washington to support the coalition is intensifying.

Shipping markets are pricing in uncertainty but not yet a full Bab el-Mandeb closure. If that changes, the global supply chain faces its most severe disruption since the Second World War: two of the world's five critical maritime chokepoints simultaneously denied to commercial traffic, with the Cape of Good Hope route already stretched to capacity from Hormuz diversions.

The second shoe has not yet dropped. But the foot is in the air.