Hormuz vs Bab el-Mandeb: What a Dual Chokepoint Closure Actually Costs

The Two-Front Chokepoint Crisis

For five weeks, the Strait of Hormuz crisis has dominated maritime risk calculations. Now Iran has opened a second front. A senior adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned in early April that the Resistance Axis views Bab el-Mandeb "as it does Hormuz" — a chokepoint it can close at will.

This is no longer a single-strait crisis. It is a dual-chokepoint scenario, and the math is staggering. Here is what each closure costs, side by side, and what happens when both shut down simultaneously.

The Numbers: Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil supply — close to 20 million barrels per day. Since Iran's IRGC restricted passage on February 28, the disruption has been the largest to global energy supply since the 1970s oil crisis.

The damage so far: Brent crude peaked at $126 per barrel, up from the low $70s before hostilities. Gulf states and Iraq lose an estimated $1.1 billion per day in oil revenue. Some 170 containerships carrying 450,000 TEU — about 1.4% of the global fleet — remain trapped. Twenty-one attacks on commercial vessels have killed ten seafarers. War risk insurance premiums surged over 300%, adding $10-14 million per VLCC voyage.

The Dallas Federal Reserve estimated the closure would lower global GDP growth by an annualized 2.9 percentage points in Q2 2026. And the impact extends far beyond oil: fertilizer, helium, sulfur, plastics, and aluminum all transit Hormuz. Global fertilizer prices are expected to average 15-20% higher in the first half of 2026.

One partial relief: Iran has granted selective exemptions. Iraq can now export up to 3 million barrels per day. Ships from China, India, Pakistan, the Philippines, and several other countries have secured safe passage deals — some reportedly paying transit fees in yuan or cryptocurrency. This selective enforcement has transformed Hormuz from a blockade into a tool of geopolitical leverage.

The Numbers: Bab el-Mandeb

The Bab el-Mandeb strait, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, handles approximately 12% of all global trade. Houthi forces, which control the Yemeni coastline along the strait, resumed attacks on commercial shipping on February 28 — the same day the Hormuz crisis began.

A Bab el-Mandeb closure forces vessels onto the Cape of Good Hope route around Africa, adding 10-15 days to voyages and approximately $1 million in fuel costs per round trip for container vessels. Unlike Hormuz, where oil dominates, Bab el-Mandeb's disruption hits container shipping hardest — it is the southern gate to the Suez Canal, the artery connecting Asia to Europe.

Analysts project that a full Bab el-Mandeb closure would push oil prices to $120-130 per barrel. But the real cost is in container freight rates and delivery times. European supply chains, already strained by two years of Houthi disruptions, would face their most severe test since the pandemic.

The Dual Scenario: Both Shut

This is the scenario that keeps shipping executives awake. A simultaneous closure of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb would block approximately 30% of global container shipping from its normal routing and threaten roughly 22% of global oil supply. The combined trade value at risk: $10 billion per day.

The rerouting math breaks down badly. Hormuz-dependent oil cargoes have no realistic alternative — pipeline capacity cannot absorb the volume. Bab el-Mandeb traffic can divert around the Cape, but at enormous cost and delay. Combined, the two closures would create the most severe supply chain disruption in modern maritime history.

Modelizers at SolAbility estimate the global GDP impact of a dual closure ranges from $590 billion to $3.5 trillion — up to 3.15% of world GDP — transmitted through oil, LNG, fertilizer, and shipping channels.

Five-Strait Risk Scorecard: Updated April 8

Strait of Hormuz — CRITICAL (9/10). Active conflict zone. Selective transit via country-specific deals. 20,000 seafarers still stranded. Insurance premiums prohibitive for uncommitted vessels.

Bab el-Mandeb — CRITICAL (8/10). Elevated from HIGH. Iran's explicit threat plus resumed Houthi attacks make closure a realistic near-term scenario. Insurance costs already elevated from two years of Houthi campaign.

Suez Canal — HIGH (7/10). Directly dependent on Bab el-Mandeb. If the southern gate closes, Suez becomes inaccessible from Asia. Traffic already depressed.

Strait of Malacca — ELEVATED (5/10). No direct conflict exposure, but record traffic volumes (94,000 transits in 2024) and rerouting pressure from diverted vessels create congestion risk. Week-long waits reported.

Panama Canal — LOW (2/10). Operating at full capacity. Water levels recovered. No geopolitical risk.

Bottom Line

Hormuz is the oil crisis. Bab el-Mandeb is the trade crisis. Together, they are the everything crisis. The combined $10 billion daily trade exposure and potential 3.15% GDP hit dwarf any single-chokepoint scenario. Iran's selective enforcement of Hormuz — granting passage to allies while blocking adversaries — shows this is not merely a military blockade but a new model of maritime coercion. The question is no longer whether shipping can navigate around one closure. It is whether the global economy can survive two.