{"ledger":"Eagle Forecast Ledger","source":"Eagle Intelligence","url":"https://eagleintelmari.com/forecasts","docs":"https://eagleintelmari.com/forecasts#methodology","recordingSince":"2026-09-05T00:17:17.578Z","updatedAt":"2026-11-07T00:21:43.442Z","asOf":"2026-11-07T09:00:27.143Z","note":"Forecasts are about the Eagle War-Risk Index, a deterministic function of the public maritime wire. Brier score: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is 'always 50%'. Skill = 1 − Brier/BaselineBrier over model-issued forecasts. type='band_at' asks about the band at one instant; type='days_at_or_above' asks whether the subject clears the target on at least `threshold` of `checks` daily checks, the threshold being chosen so the base rate sits near 50%. The two shapes are scored together but scorecard.byType splits them. Indicative editorial measure — not insurance, financial or navigational advice.","scorecard":{"issued":512,"open":79,"resolved":433,"voided":0,"resolvedLifetime":433,"yesRate":0.5866,"brier":0.1048,"baselineBrier":0.1062,"skill":0.0132,"modelResolved":433,"modelBrier":0.1048,"modelBaselineBrier":0.1062,"calibration":[{"from":0,"to":0.1,"n":74,"meanForecast":0.0485,"observedFrequency":0.0135},{"from":0.1,"to":0.2,"n":58,"meanForecast":0.1372,"observedFrequency":0.0345},{"from":0.2,"to":0.3,"n":12,"meanForecast":0.2275,"observedFrequency":0.4167},{"from":0.3,"to":0.4,"n":25,"meanForecast":0.3596,"observedFrequency":0.56},{"from":0.4,"to":0.5,"n":28,"meanForecast":0.4432,"observedFrequency":0.7143},{"from":0.5,"to":0.6,"n":31,"meanForecast":0.5487,"observedFrequency":0.8065},{"from":0.6,"to":0.7,"n":40,"meanForecast":0.6402,"observedFrequency":0.775},{"from":0.7,"to":0.8,"n":31,"meanForecast":0.751,"observedFrequency":0.7419},{"from":0.8,"to":0.9,"n":83,"meanForecast":0.8571,"observedFrequency":0.988},{"from":0.9,"to":1,"n":51,"meanForecast":0.9169,"observedFrequency":1}],"bySubject":[{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)","resolved":91,"brier":0.0241,"open":37},{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait","resolved":57,"brier":0.2591,"open":7},{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits","resolved":57,"brier":0.2426,"open":7},{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal","resolved":57,"brier":0.0021,"open":7},{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz","resolved":57,"brier":0.0139,"open":7},{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca","resolved":57,"brier":0.0292,"open":7},{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal","resolved":57,"brier":0.2106,"open":7}],"byForecaster":[{"forecaster":"grok-4.3","resolved":433,"brier":0.1048}],"byType":[{"type":"band_at","resolved":221,"brier":0.0672,"baselineBrier":0.0563,"open":51},{"type":"days_at_or_above","resolved":212,"brier":0.144,"baselineBrier":0.1582,"open":28}]},"open":[{"id":"fc-2026-11-07-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:22.239Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-14T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 14 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.86,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.92,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Stable SEVERE headline with no band changes and recent windows at 7 support near-certain continuation.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-07-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:22.239Z","resolvesAt":"2026-12-07T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 7 Dec 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"No recorded band changes in 30 days and persistent Hormuz driver keep headline at SEVERE.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-07-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:22.239Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-14T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 14 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"high24":14,"signals24":47,"signals7d":518},"baseline":0.86,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.93,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current SEVERE band, 14 HIGH signals in 24h and 518 in 7d with no changes indicate sustained alerts.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-07-suez-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:22.239Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-14T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"threshold":1,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 14 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":4,"signals7d":20},"baseline":0.56,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.58,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Frequent recent toggles between MONITORING and ELEVATED plus low signal count keep odds near baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-07-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:22.239Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-14T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 14 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":1,"signals24":5,"signals7d":25},"baseline":0.66,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.68,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED band with ongoing HIGH signals outweighs recent fluctuations from baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-07-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:22.239Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-14T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 14 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":8},"baseline":0.02,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.03,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING band, zero HIGH signals and only one distant change keep probability near zero baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-07-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:22.239Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-14T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 14 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":0},"baseline":0.04,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.03,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Zero signals, no band changes and MONITORING status align with low baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-07-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:22.239Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-14T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"threshold":6,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 14 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":2,"signals24":2,"signals7d":41},"baseline":0.49,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.52,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED with recent signals and last window at 6 support slight lift above even baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-06-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-06T00:16:29.021Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-13T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 13 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.86,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.92,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"No band changes in 30 days and current SEVERE headline with ongoing Hormuz signals support near-continuous high band.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-06-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-11-06T00:16:29.021Z","resolvesAt":"2026-12-06T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 6 Dec 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"No band changes in 30 days and current SEVERE headline with ongoing Hormuz signals support persistence at 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higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":3,"signals7d":19},"baseline":0.67,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.42,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Recent downward band move and low signals reduce odds below baseline for ELEVATED at horizon end.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-06-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-06T00:16:29.021Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-13T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 13 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":2,"signals7d":9},"baseline":0.02,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.03,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Baseline already near zero, current low signals, and only distant band change support minimal odds.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-06-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-06T00:16:29.021Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-13T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 13 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":0},"baseline":0.04,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.03,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Baseline already near zero, zero recent signals, and no band changes support minimal odds.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-06-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-06T00:16:29.021Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-13T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish 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higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.86,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.9,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current SEVERE headline with zero band changes in 30 days and recent windows at 7 support staying elevated.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-05-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-11-05T00:16:22.584Z","resolvesAt":"2026-12-05T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 5 Dec 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current SEVERE headline with zero band changes in 30 days and high baseline indicate persistence.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-05-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-05T00:16:22.584Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-12T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 12 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"high24":4,"signals24":54,"signals7d":603},"baseline":0.86,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.92,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current SEVERE band, multiple HIGH signals in last 24h, and stable recent windows favor continuation.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-05-suez-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-05T00:16:22.584Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-12T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"threshold":1,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 12 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":10},"baseline":0.55,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.58,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Frequent recent toggles between ELEVATED and MONITORING plus most recent window at 1 raise odds slightly above baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-05-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-05T00:16:22.584Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-12T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 12 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":2,"signals7d":21},"baseline":0.68,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.35,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING band and latest change to lower level on 4 Nov pull below the 0.68 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-05-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-05T00:16:22.584Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-12T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 12 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":7},"baseline":0.02,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.04,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING band, minimal signals, and only one brief change weeks ago keep probability near the low baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-05-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-05T00:16:22.584Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-12T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 12 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":0},"baseline":0.05,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.03,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING band, zero signals, and no band changes in 30 days keep probability near the low baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-05-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-05T00:16:22.584Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-12T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"threshold":6,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 12 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":2,"signals24":2,"signals7d":51},"baseline":0.48,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.52,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED band with ongoing signals and recent window at 6 nudge slightly above the 0.48 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-04-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-04T00:16:28.056Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-11T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 11 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.86,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.92,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"No band changes and sustained Hormuz signals keep headline locked at SEVERE across the full window.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-04-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-11-04T00:16:28.056Z","resolvesAt":"2026-12-04T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 4 Dec 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Zero band changes in 30 days and persistent Hormuz driver support continued SEVERE at month-end.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-04-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-04T00:16:28.056Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-11T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 11 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"high24":20,"signals24":129,"signals7d":561},"baseline":0.86,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.93,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"20 HIGH signals in last day plus 561 in week and no band shifts indicate unbroken SEVERE streak.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-04-suez-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-04T00:16:28.056Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-11T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"threshold":1,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 11 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":4,"signals7d":10},"baseline":0.54,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.58,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Frequent toggles between MONITORING and ELEVATED plus one ELEVATED in most recent window raise odds slightly above baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-04-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-04T00:16:28.056Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-11T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 11 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":1,"signals24":2,"signals7d":26},"baseline":0.67,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.74,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED status with latest shift only two days ago and ongoing Red Sea signals favor continuation.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-04-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-04T00:16:28.056Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-11T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 11 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":1,"signals7d":7},"baseline":0.02,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.04,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"No HIGH signals, stable MONITORING band, and near-zero baseline give minimal chance of ELEVATED.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-04-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-04T00:16:28.056Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-11T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 11 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":0},"baseline":0.05,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.03,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Zero signals recorded and unchanged MONITORING band keep probability near the low baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-04-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-04T00:16:28.056Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-11T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"threshold":6,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 11 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":9,"signals24":12,"signals7d":57},"baseline":0.47,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.64,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Nine HIGH signals and recent ELEVATED readings support at least six days above threshold in the window.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-03-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-03T00:16:48.877Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-10T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.86,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.88,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"No band changes in 30 days and current SEVERE with ongoing Hormuz activity.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-03-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-11-03T00:16:48.877Z","resolvesAt":"2026-12-03T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 3 Dec 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"No changes recorded in 30 days and persistent SEVERE driven by Hormuz.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-03-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-03T00:16:48.877Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-10T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"high24":22,"signals24":79,"signals7d":474},"baseline":0.86,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.9,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Persistent SEVERE with 22 HIGH signals in last 24h and no recent band changes.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-03-suez-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-03T00:16:48.877Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-10T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"threshold":1,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":1,"signals24":5,"signals7d":8},"baseline":0.54,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.62,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Recent fluctuations but current ELEVATED and most recent window scored 1.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-03-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-03T00:16:48.877Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-10T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":6,"signals7d":32},"baseline":0.68,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.35,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Currently MONITORING after multiple recent downgrades from ELEVATED.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-03-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-03T00:16:48.877Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-10T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":1,"signals7d":5},"baseline":0.02,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.04,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Baseline low and only one brief ELEVATED in last 30 days.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-03-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-03T00:16:48.877Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-10T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":0},"baseline":0.05,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.03,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"No signals recorded and no band changes in 30 days.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-03-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-03T00:16:48.877Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-10T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"threshold":6,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":3,"signals24":5,"signals7d":48},"baseline":0.46,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.52,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Frequent changes but current ELEVATED and most recent window scored 6.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-02-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-02T00:16:35.728Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-09T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.85,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.9,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"No band changes in 30 days and recent 7-day window at 7 keep SEVERE headline near-certain through the horizon.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-02-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-11-02T00:16:35.728Z","resolvesAt":"2026-12-02T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 2 Dec 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.92,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Persistent SEVERE with zero band changes over 30 days supports only modest erosion from the 0.97 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-02-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-02T00:16:35.728Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-09T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"high24":8,"signals24":26,"signals7d":436},"baseline":0.85,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.93,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Hundreds of signals and eight HIGH signals in the last day with no band changes sustain the current SEVERE level.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-02-suez-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-02T00:16:35.728Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-09T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"threshold":1,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":5},"baseline":0.53,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.4,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING, only five signals in seven days, and most recent window at zero lower the odds below the 0.53 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-02-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-02T00:16:35.728Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-09T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":5,"signals7d":27},"baseline":0.69,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.42,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING, low recent signals, and repeated swings back to L2 reduce the chance below the 0.69 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-02-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-02T00:16:35.728Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-09T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":5},"baseline":0.02,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.03,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING and only one brief ELEVATED episode in the last 30 days keep the probability near the 0.02 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-02-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-02T00:16:35.728Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-09T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":0},"baseline":0.05,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.04,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Zero signals in seven days and no band changes recorded leave the probability near the 0.05 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-02-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-02T00:16:35.728Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-09T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"threshold":6,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 9 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":1,"signals24":1,"signals7d":55},"baseline":0.46,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.52,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED with one HIGH signal and recent window at six support a modest lift above the 0.46 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-01-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-01T00:16:25.915Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-08T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.85,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.92,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Stable severe headline with zero band changes in 30 days and recent windows at maximum count support near-certain continuation.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-01-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-11-01T00:16:25.915Z","resolvesAt":"2026-12-01T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 1 Dec 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"No band changes recorded in 30 days and current severe level make persistence through 30 days highly likely.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-01-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-01T00:16:25.915Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-08T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"high24":13,"signals24":37,"signals7d":432},"baseline":0.85,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.93,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current severe band, high recent signal count, and zero changes in 30 days point to sustained level over the window.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-01-suez-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-01T00:16:25.915Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-08T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"threshold":1,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher on at least 1 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":1,"signals7d":5},"baseline":0.54,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.4,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current monitoring band, low signal volume, and most recent window at zero lower odds below baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-01-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-01T00:16:25.915Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-08T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":1,"signals7d":25},"baseline":0.7,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.35,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current monitoring band, low recent signals, and latest move to monitoring reduce odds below baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-01-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-01T00:16:25.915Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-08T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":1,"signals7d":4},"baseline":0.02,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.05,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Baseline already near zero, current monitoring band, and minimal signals keep probability very low.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-01-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-01T00:16:25.915Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-08T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":0},"baseline":0.05,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.03,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Baseline near zero, current monitoring band, and zero signals in past week keep probability minimal.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-11-01-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-11-01T00:16:25.915Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-08T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"threshold":6,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 8 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":1,"signals7d":59},"baseline":0.45,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.48,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Frequent recent band changes and current monitoring level offset the recent window at six, holding near baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-31-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:16:34.113Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-30T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 30 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Persistent SEVERE headline with zero band changes over 30 days keeps probability near the high baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-30-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-30T14:20:46.752Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-29T14:20:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 14:20 UTC on 29 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.9,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current SEVERE band stable with no changes recorded supports high persistence over 30 days though longer horizon allows modest downside.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-29-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-29T00:16:30.467Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-28T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 28 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Baseline already 0.97 with current SEVERE and no band changes recorded in last 30 days supports only minor downward adjustment.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-28-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-28T00:16:26.982Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-27T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 27 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Persistent SEVERE with zero band changes over 30 days keeps probability near the 0.97 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-27-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:16:21.840Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-26T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 26 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Persistent SEVERE band with no recorded changes over 30 days supports continuation through the horizon.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-26-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-26T00:16:34.625Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-25T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 25 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.92,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Headline has held SEVERE since late September with no reversal signals, so probability remains close to the high baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-25-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-25T00:16:39.417Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-24T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 24 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Baseline already near 1.0 and no signals of de-escalation over the next month.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-24-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-24T00:16:19.495Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-23T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 23 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Headline has remained SEVERE for nearly a month with no reversal signals, keeping probability near the high baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-23-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-23T00:16:43.868Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-22T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 22 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Headline has remained SEVERE since late September with no reversal signals, far above the already-high baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-22-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-22T00:16:22.829Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-21T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 21 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.85,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"SEVERE since late September with no reversal signals in evidence despite 30-day horizon.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-21-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-21T00:16:22.829Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-20T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 20 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.97,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Baseline already 0.97 and headline has held SEVERE without interruption since late September.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-20-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-20T00:16:20.168Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-19T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 19 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.96,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.82,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Headline has held SEVERE for nearly a month with no reversal signals, though 30-day horizon allows more scope for de-escalation than baseline 0.96.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-19-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-19T00:16:20.649Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-18T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 18 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.96,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.85,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Persistent SEVERE driven by Hormuz raises odds above long baseline despite 30-day horizon.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-18-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-18T00:16:22.862Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-17T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 17 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.96,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.93,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"SEVERE band has held for nearly a month with no reversal signals in evidence.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-17-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-17T00:16:23.972Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-16T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 16 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.96,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.92,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Baseline 0.96; SEVERE since late September with no reversal signals in evidence supports only minor downward adjustment over 30 days.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-16-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-16T00:16:24.029Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-15T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 15 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.96,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.9,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"SEVERE headline has held for three weeks with no reversal signals, though a drop remains possible over 30 days.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-15-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-15T00:16:45.425Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-14T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 14 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.96,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.93,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"SEVERE headline has held since late September with no reversal signals, well above the already high baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-14-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-14T00:17:24.224Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-13T00:17:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:17 UTC on 13 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.96,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.9,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Sustained SEVERE conditions and high baseline indicate elevated likelihood of remaining at target level.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-13-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-13T00:16:23.337Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-12T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 12 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.96,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.93,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Baseline already 0.96 and no evidence of de-escalation over the longer horizon.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-12-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-12T00:16:26.856Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-11T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 11 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.96,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.82,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Ongoing Hormuz-driven SEVERE status supports elevated persistence but 30-day horizon allows for possible de-escalation below baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-10-11-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:30.338Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-10T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.96,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.92,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Stable SEVERE since late September with no reversal signals in evidence raises persistence 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War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.96,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.93,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Stable severe headline for weeks and high baseline indicate persistence at the 30-day mark.","status":"open"}],"resolved":[{"id":"fc-2026-10-31-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:16:34.113Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.85,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.9,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current SEVERE headline with no band changes in 30 days and recent 7-day windows at 7 support persistence above baseline.","status":"resolved","resolution":{"at":"2026-11-07T00:21:42.481Z","outcome":true,"observedCount":7,"checks":7,"threshold":7,"source":"changelog","brier":0.01,"baselineBrier":0.0225}},{"id":"fc-2026-10-31-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:16:34.113Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"threshold":7,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher on at least 7 of 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them?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":4},"baseline":0.55,"baselineMethod":"count-climatology-90d","probability":0.4,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING level, zero HIGH signals, and recent windows at zero lower odds below baseline.","status":"resolved","resolution":{"at":"2026-11-07T00:21:42.481Z","outcome":true,"observedCount":1,"checks":7,"threshold":1,"source":"changelog","brier":0.36,"baselineBrier":0.2025}},{"id":"fc-2026-10-31-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:16:34.113Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":1,"signals24":1,"signals7d":26},"baseline":0.7,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.65,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED band offset by repeated recent downgrades and low signal count pulls below baseline.","status":"resolved","resolution":{"at":"2026-11-07T00:21:42.481Z","outcome":true,"observedBand":"ELEVATED","observedLevel":3,"observedAt":"2026-11-06T17:00:23.000Z","source":"changelog","brier":0.1225,"baselineBrier":0.09}},{"id":"fc-2026-10-31-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:16:34.113Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":1,"signals7d":3},"baseline":0.02,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.05,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING level and minimal signals keep probability near the low baseline despite one brief prior spike.","status":"resolved","resolution":{"at":"2026-11-07T00:21:42.481Z","outcome":false,"observedBand":"MONITORING","observedLevel":2,"observedAt":"2026-11-06T17:00:23.000Z","source":"changelog","brier":0.0025,"baselineBrier":0.0004}},{"id":"fc-2026-10-31-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:16:34.113Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":0},"baseline":0.05,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.03,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Zero signals, MONITORING band, and no changes support probability near the low baseline.","status":"resolved","resolution":{"at":"2026-11-07T00:21:42.481Z","outcome":false,"observedBand":"MONITORING","observedLevel":2,"observedAt":"2026-11-06T17:00:23.000Z","source":"changelog","brier":0.0009,"baselineBrier":0.0025}},{"id":"fc-2026-10-31-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-10-31T00:16:34.113Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-07T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"days_at_or_above","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"threshold":6,"checks":7,"question":"Of the 7 daily checks ending 00:16 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher on at least 6 of 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higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":1,"signals7d":7},"baseline":0.02,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.05,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING level and minimal signals keep probability near the low baseline despite one brief recent spike.","status":"resolved","resolution":{"at":"2026-11-03T00:35:20.395Z","outcome":false,"observedBand":"MONITORING","observedLevel":2,"observedAt":"2026-11-02T18:51:05.000Z","source":"changelog","brier":0.0025,"baselineBrier":0.0004}},{"id":"fc-2026-10-27-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-10-27T00:16:21.840Z","resolvesAt":"2026-11-03T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or 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baseline.","status":"resolved","resolution":{"at":"2026-09-12T00:21:22.261Z","outcome":false,"observedBand":"MONITORING","observedLevel":2,"observedAt":"2026-09-09T20:05:05.956Z","source":"changelog","brier":0.0225,"baselineBrier":0.0144}},{"id":"fc-2026-09-05-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-05T00:17:17.578Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-12T00:17:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:17 UTC on 12 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":1,"signals24":4,"signals7d":19},"baseline":0.57,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.6,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current elevated band with limited recent signals supports a probability near the moderate baseline.","status":"resolved","resolution":{"at":"2026-09-12T00:21:22.261Z","outcome":true,"observedBand":"ELEVATED","observedLevel":3,"observedAt":"2026-09-09T20:05:05.956Z","source":"changelog","brier":0.16,"baselineBrier":0.1849}},{"id":"fc-2026-09-05-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-05T00:17:17.578Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-12T00:17:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:17 UTC on 12 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":2,"signals7d":26},"baseline":0.06,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.08,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Persistent monitoring band and minimal signals support staying near the low baseline.","status":"resolved","resolution":{"at":"2026-09-12T00:21:22.261Z","outcome":false,"observedBand":"MONITORING","observedLevel":2,"observedAt":"2026-09-09T20:05:05.956Z","source":"changelog","brier":0.0064,"baselineBrier":0.0036}},{"id":"fc-2026-09-05-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-05T00:17:17.578Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-12T00:17:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:17 UTC on 12 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":2},"baseline":0.16,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.12,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current monitoring band with no recent high signals keeps probability near the low baseline.","status":"resolved","resolution":{"at":"2026-09-12T00:21:22.261Z","outcome":false,"observedBand":"MONITORING","observedLevel":2,"observedAt":"2026-09-09T20:05:05.956Z","source":"changelog","brier":0.0144,"baselineBrier":0.0256}},{"id":"fc-2026-09-05-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-05T00:17:17.578Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-12T00:17:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:17 UTC on 12 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":2,"signals7d":32},"baseline":0.76,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.65,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Frequent recent swings around the elevated baseline with low latest signals support a modest downward adjustment.","status":"resolved","resolution":{"at":"2026-09-12T00:21:22.261Z","outcome":true,"observedBand":"ELEVATED","observedLevel":3,"observedAt":"2026-09-09T20:05:05.956Z","source":"changelog","brier":0.1225,"baselineBrier":0.0576}}]}