{"ledger":"Eagle Forecast Ledger","source":"Eagle Intelligence","url":"https://eagleintelmari.com/forecasts","docs":"https://eagleintelmari.com/forecasts#methodology","recordingSince":"2026-09-05T00:17:17.578Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-23T00:21:20.753Z","asOf":"2026-09-23T06:36:36.437Z","note":"Forecasts are about the Eagle War-Risk Index, a deterministic function of the public maritime wire. Brier score: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is 'always 50%'. Skill = 1 − Brier/BaselineBrier over model-issued forecasts. type='band_at' asks about the band at one instant; type='days_at_or_above' asks whether the subject clears the target on at least `threshold` of `checks` daily checks, the threshold being chosen so the base rate sits near 50%. The two shapes are scored together but scorecard.byType splits them. Indicative editorial measure — not insurance, financial or navigational advice.","scorecard":{"issued":152,"open":68,"resolved":84,"voided":0,"resolvedLifetime":84,"yesRate":0.5357,"brier":0.0969,"baselineBrier":0.0838,"skill":-0.1563,"modelResolved":84,"modelBrier":0.0969,"modelBaselineBrier":0.0838,"calibration":[{"from":0,"to":0.1,"n":15,"meanForecast":0.0667,"observedFrequency":0.0667},{"from":0.1,"to":0.2,"n":20,"meanForecast":0.1365,"observedFrequency":0.05},{"from":0.2,"to":0.3,"n":1,"meanForecast":0.22,"observedFrequency":0},{"from":0.3,"to":0.4,"n":1,"meanForecast":0.38,"observedFrequency":1},{"from":0.4,"to":0.5,"n":4,"meanForecast":0.4525,"observedFrequency":0.5},{"from":0.5,"to":0.6,"n":6,"meanForecast":0.56,"observedFrequency":1},{"from":0.6,"to":0.7,"n":8,"meanForecast":0.64,"observedFrequency":1},{"from":0.7,"to":0.8,"n":5,"meanForecast":0.752,"observedFrequency":0.4},{"from":0.8,"to":0.9,"n":22,"meanForecast":0.8564,"observedFrequency":1},{"from":0.9,"to":1,"n":2,"meanForecast":0.9,"observedFrequency":1}],"bySubject":[{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait","resolved":12,"brier":0.219,"open":7},{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits","resolved":12,"brier":0.2432,"open":7},{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)","resolved":12,"brier":0.0221,"open":26},{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal","resolved":12,"brier":0.004,"open":7},{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz","resolved":12,"brier":0.0181,"open":7},{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca","resolved":12,"brier":0.0821,"open":7},{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal","resolved":12,"brier":0.0897,"open":7}],"byForecaster":[{"forecaster":"grok-4.3","resolved":84,"brier":0.0969}],"byType":[{"type":"band_at","resolved":84,"brier":0.0969,"baselineBrier":0.0838,"open":68}]},"open":[{"id":"fc-2026-09-23-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-23T00:16:18.555Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-30T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 30 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.94,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.93,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current SEVERE driven by Hormuz with sustained HIGH signals supports continuation at the 7-day mark.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-23-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-09-23T00:16:18.555Z","resolvesAt":"2026-10-23T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.94,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.88,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Persistent Hormuz activity and recent pattern favor headline remaining SEVERE at 30 days.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-23-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-23T00:16:18.555Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-30T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 30 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"high24":6,"signals24":34,"signals7d":365},"baseline":0.94,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.94,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Ongoing HIGH signals and current SEVERE band indicate high likelihood of remaining at SEVERE in 7 days.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-23-suez-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-23T00:16:18.555Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-30T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 30 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":7,"signals7d":27},"baseline":0.12,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.15,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING band and minimal recent signals align closely with the low baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-23-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-23T00:16:18.555Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-30T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 30 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":5,"signals24":18,"signals7d":85},"baseline":0.67,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.72,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED status with multiple HIGH signals in last 24 hours supports staying at or above target.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-23-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-23T00:16:18.555Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-30T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 30 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":2,"signals7d":9},"baseline":0.03,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.04,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Zero HIGH signals and long stable MONITORING band keep probability near the low baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-23-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-23T00:16:18.555Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-30T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 30 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":4},"baseline":0.1,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.12,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING with negligible signals matches the low historical rate.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-23-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-23T00:16:18.555Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-30T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 30 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":2,"signals24":4,"signals7d":21},"baseline":0.73,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.76,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Recent ELEVATED band and active HIGH signals in last day support continuation above baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-22-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-22T00:16:20.924Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-29T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 29 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.94,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.93,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current SEVERE band driven by Hormuz with high recent signals supports persistence near the 0.94 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-22-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-09-22T00:16:20.924Z","resolvesAt":"2026-10-22T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.94,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.92,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Persistent Hormuz-driven SEVERE pattern over recent weeks keeps outlook near the 0.94 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-22-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-22T00:16:20.924Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-29T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 29 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"high24":16,"signals24":80,"signals7d":405},"baseline":0.94,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.93,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Sixteen HIGH signals in last day and ongoing SEVERE status align with the 0.94 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-22-suez-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-22T00:16:20.924Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-29T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 29 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":7,"signals7d":27},"baseline":0.12,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.15,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING band and low recent signals raise the 0.12 baseline only modestly.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-22-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-22T00:16:20.924Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-29T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 29 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":5,"signals24":12,"signals7d":95},"baseline":0.66,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.62,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Frequent recent band flips around ELEVATED keep probability near the 0.66 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-22-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-22T00:16:20.924Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-29T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 29 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":14},"baseline":0.03,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.04,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Zero HIGH signals and stable MONITORING status leave the 0.03 baseline nearly unchanged.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-22-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-22T00:16:20.924Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-29T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 29 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":1,"signals24":4,"signals7d":4},"baseline":0.09,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.14,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Single recent HIGH signal and latest ELEVATED move lift the 0.09 baseline slightly.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-22-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-22T00:16:20.924Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-29T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 29 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":2,"signals24":4,"signals7d":24},"baseline":0.74,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.7,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Ongoing ELEVATED status with multiple recent HIGH signals stays close to the 0.74 baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-21-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-21T00:16:12.716Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-28T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 28 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.93,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.85,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current SEVERE headline and 0.93 baseline indicate high likelihood of remaining at SEVERE or higher in seven days despite recent fluctuations.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-21-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-09-21T00:16:12.716Z","resolvesAt":"2026-10-21T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 21 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.93,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.8,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Persistent SEVERE conditions and 0.93 baseline support elevated probability over thirty days with only modest allowance for longer-term shifts.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-21-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-21T00:16:12.716Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-28T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 28 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"high24":3,"signals24":23,"signals7d":416},"baseline":0.93,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.88,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current SEVERE band, multiple recent HIGH signals, and 0.93 baseline point to continued SEVERE status in seven days.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-21-suez-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-21T00:16:12.716Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-28T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 28 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":4,"signals7d":29},"baseline":0.12,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.18,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING band and low recent HIGH signals against 0.12 baseline yield only modest chance of reaching ELEVATED within seven days.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-21-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-21T00:16:12.716Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-28T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 28 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":2,"signals24":2,"signals7d":115},"baseline":0.65,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.6,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED band with ongoing signals but frequent flips supports probability near the 0.65 baseline for seven days ahead.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-21-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-21T00:16:12.716Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-28T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 28 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":1,"signals7d":17},"baseline":0.03,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.04,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Persistent MONITORING band, minimal signals, and 0.03 baseline indicate very low probability of ELEVATED status in seven days.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-21-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-21T00:16:12.716Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-28T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 28 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":0},"baseline":0.08,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.06,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Zero recent signals and 0.08 baseline keep probability low for reaching ELEVATED within seven days.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-21-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-21T00:16:12.716Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-28T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 28 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":1,"signals24":1,"signals7d":26},"baseline":0.73,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.68,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED band with recent HIGH signal aligns closely with 0.73 baseline for seven-day outlook.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-20-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-20T00:16:22.958Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-27T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 27 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.93,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.88,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current SEVERE status with sustained high Hormuz activity supports continuation over the short horizon.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-20-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-09-20T00:16:22.958Z","resolvesAt":"2026-10-20T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 20 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.93,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.82,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Persistent Hormuz signals and recent pattern favor elevated headline despite longer horizon uncertainty.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-20-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-20T00:16:22.958Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-27T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 27 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"high24":2,"signals24":27,"signals7d":519},"baseline":0.93,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.9,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Heavy recent signal volume and current SEVERE band indicate high likelihood of continued alerts.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-20-suez-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-20T00:16:22.958Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-27T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 27 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":26},"baseline":0.13,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.15,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current low band and minimal recent signals align closely with the low historical baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-20-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-20T00:16:22.958Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-27T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 27 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":2,"signals7d":124},"baseline":0.66,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.45,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Frequent recent band flips and low current signals pull probability below the elevated baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-20-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-20T00:16:22.958Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-27T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 27 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":1,"signals7d":16},"baseline":0.03,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.04,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Near-zero signals and stable low band match the very low historical rate.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-20-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-20T00:16:22.958Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-27T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 27 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":1},"baseline":0.08,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.06,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Minimal signals and current low band keep probability near the low baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-20-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-20T00:16:22.958Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-27T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 27 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":1,"signals7d":26},"baseline":0.75,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.55,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Recent oscillations and low current signals reduce probability from the high baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-19-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-19T00:16:25.254Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-26T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.93,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.88,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current SEVERE driven by sustained Hormuz signals; recent fluctuations noted but baseline high.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-19-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-09-19T00:16:25.254Z","resolvesAt":"2026-10-19T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 19 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.93,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.8,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Longer horizon increases chance of drop below SEVERE given observed band volatility.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-19-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-19T00:16:25.254Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-26T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"high24":18,"signals24":83,"signals7d":499},"baseline":0.93,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.9,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Very high recent HIGH-signal count supports continued SEVERE band.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-19-suez-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-19T00:16:25.254Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-26T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":27},"baseline":0.13,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.18,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current low activity and mostly MONITORING state align with low baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-19-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-19T00:16:25.254Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-26T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":3,"signals24":16,"signals7d":127},"baseline":0.66,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.62,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED with moderate signals; baseline near even odds.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-19-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-19T00:16:25.254Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-26T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":15},"baseline":0.03,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.04,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"No signals and long-term low baseline indicate negligible chance of rise.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-19-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-19T00:16:25.254Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-26T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":1},"baseline":0.09,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.1,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Minimal signals and current MONITORING support near-baseline odds.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-19-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-19T00:16:25.254Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-26T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 26 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":7,"signals24":8,"signals7d":27},"baseline":0.75,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.72,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED with ongoing signals keeps probability near baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-18-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-18T00:16:18.739Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-25T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.93,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.88,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current SEVERE driven by sustained Hormuz activity with 462 signals in 7 days supports near-baseline persistence.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-18-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-09-18T00:16:18.739Z","resolvesAt":"2026-10-18T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 18 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.93,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.85,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Recent fluctuations between SEVERE and ELEVATED plus ongoing Hormuz signals point to slightly lower odds over longer horizon.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-18-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-18T00:16:18.739Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-25T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"high24":12,"signals24":39,"signals7d":462},"baseline":0.93,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.9,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"12 HIGH signals in last 24 hours and 462 over 7 days indicate continued SEVERE band at the 7-day mark.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-18-suez-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-18T00:16:18.739Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-25T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":1,"signals7d":26},"baseline":0.14,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.12,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING band with only 26 signals over 7 days and zero HIGH signals keeps odds near the low baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-18-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-18T00:16:18.739Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-25T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":4,"signals24":18,"signals7d":133},"baseline":0.65,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.68,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED with 4 HIGH signals in 24 hours and 133 over 7 days supports a modest lift above baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-18-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-18T00:16:18.739Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-25T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":2,"signals7d":14},"baseline":0.04,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.05,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current MONITORING and minimal signals over 7 days align closely with the very low baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-18-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-18T00:16:18.739Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-25T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":1},"baseline":0.09,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.06,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Only one signal in 7 days and current MONITORING band keep probability below the already low baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-18-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-18T00:16:18.739Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-25T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 25 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":3,"signals24":3,"signals7d":22},"baseline":0.74,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.78,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED with 3 HIGH signals in 24 hours and 22 over 7 days supports a small increase over baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-17-headline-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-17T00:16:22.385Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-24T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.92,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.88,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Hormuz remains at SEVERE with sustained HIGH signals, supporting headline persistence over the week.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-17-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-09-17T00:16:22.385Z","resolvesAt":"2026-10-17T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 17 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.92,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.78,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Hormuz activity keeps headline elevated but 30-day horizon allows for possible de-escalation.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-17-strait-of-hormuz-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-17T00:16:22.385Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-24T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"high24":12,"signals24":49,"signals7d":544},"baseline":0.92,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.95,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Very high recent HIGH-signal count and baseline make SEVERE band likely to hold.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-17-suez-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-17T00:16:22.385Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-24T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"suez-canal","name":"Suez Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Suez Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":5,"signals7d":29},"baseline":0.14,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.18,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Zero HIGH signals and low baseline indicate low chance of reaching ELEVATED within seven days.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-17-bab-el-mandeb-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-17T00:16:22.385Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-24T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bab el-Mandeb Strait at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"ELEVATED","levelAtIssue":3,"high24":5,"signals24":14,"signals7d":160},"baseline":0.63,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.68,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Current ELEVATED band and ongoing HIGH signals support continued elevated status.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-17-panama-canal-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-17T00:16:22.385Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-24T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Panama Canal at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":2,"signals7d":13},"baseline":0.04,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.05,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"No HIGH signals and very low baseline make ELEVATED status unlikely.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-17-strait-of-malacca-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-17T00:16:22.385Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-24T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Strait of Malacca at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":0,"signals7d":1},"baseline":0.09,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.07,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Minimal signals and low baseline point to continued MONITORING band.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-17-bosphorus-7d","issuedAt":"2026-09-17T00:16:22.385Z","resolvesAt":"2026-09-24T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":7,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"bosphorus","name":"Bosphorus / Turkish Straits"},"target":"ELEVATED","targetLevel":3,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 24 Sep 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show Bosphorus / Turkish Straits at ELEVATED or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"MONITORING","levelAtIssue":2,"high24":0,"signals24":2,"signals7d":25},"baseline":0.75,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.62,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Recent flips and zero HIGH signals lower odds below the high baseline.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-16-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-09-16T00:16:23.421Z","resolvesAt":"2026-10-16T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 16 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.92,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.78,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Longer horizon increases chance of sustained drop below SEVERE given recent volatility.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-15-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-09-15T00:16:28.306Z","resolvesAt":"2026-10-15T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 15 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.92,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.78,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Longer horizon increases chance of temporary de-escalation despite recent persistence of SEVERE conditions.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-14-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-09-14T00:16:17.939Z","resolvesAt":"2026-10-14T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 14 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.92,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.78,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Baseline 0.92 but 30-day horizon allows more scope for de-escalation from current Hormuz-driven SEVERE state.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-13-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-09-13T00:16:18.256Z","resolvesAt":"2026-10-13T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 13 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.91,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.78,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Baseline remains elevated but longer horizon allows more scope for signal volume to drop.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-12-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-09-12T00:16:16.780Z","resolvesAt":"2026-10-12T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 12 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.91,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.82,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Persistent Hormuz activity supports SEVERE headline over longer horizon despite occasional easing.","status":"open"},{"id":"fc-2026-09-11-headline-30d","issuedAt":"2026-09-11T00:16:26.853Z","resolvesAt":"2026-10-11T00:16:00.000Z","horizonDays":30,"type":"band_at","subject":{"key":"headline","name":"Eagle War-Risk Index (headline)"},"target":"SEVERE","targetLevel":4,"question":"At 00:16 UTC on 11 Oct 2026, will the Eagle War-Risk Index show a headline band at SEVERE or higher?","context":{"bandAtIssue":"SEVERE","levelAtIssue":4,"drivenBy":"Strait of Hormuz"},"baseline":0.9,"baselineMethod":"climatology-90d","probability":0.72,"forecaster":"grok-4.3","rationale":"Hormuz remains the driver but longer horizon increases 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