
UNCTAD: Hormuz Closure Set to Halve Global Trade Growth as Supply Chains Cascade
UN Trade and Development has issued its second rapid assessment of the Hormuz disruption, projecting that global merchandise trade growth will fall from 4.7% in 2025 to between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2026. The agency warns the shock is no longer contained within energy markets — it is now spreading through supply chains, financial markets, and developing-country debt structures.



