Five-Strait Scorecard: Day 57 — Diplomacy Dead, Mines for Six Months, MEPC 84 Eve

Global Maritime Risk Index: 9.8 (↑ from 9.7)

Day 57 of the 2026 Iran War. Day 19 of the dual blockade. Day 0 of the Iran well damage deadline.

Strait of Hormuz — 9.9 CATASTROPHIC ↑↑

Transit: 5 ships/24hrs (vs 138 normal — 96% reduction) Status: Dual naval blockade. US blocking Iranian ports. Iran blocking the Strait. Tit-for-tat ship seizures. Trump 'shoot and kill' order active. Diplomacy: DEAD. Trump cancelled Witkoff/Kushner Pakistan trip April 25. Iran FM left Islamabad. No meetings scheduled. Future talks phone-only. Mines: Pentagon told Congress: 6 months to clear. US using drone systems after retiring minesweepers. Oil: Brent $104-106. Largest supply disruption in history. Seizures: US: Touska (Iran-flagged). Iran: MSC Francesca + Epaminondas (15 Filipino crew). Wells: Iran oil wells face permanent overflow damage if not pumping by ~April 26 (today). Insurance: 1% hull value per 7-day policy. Double-digit millions per trip. Stranded: 20,000 seafarers / 2,000 vessels (IMO). 3,500 Filipinos (DMW). Repatriated: 6,785 individuals including 5,409 seafarers (as of April 23).

Bab el-Mandeb — 9.0 CRITICAL ↑↑

Status: Carrier denied. USS George H.W. Bush detoured 6,000 miles around Africa. Houthis: Joined war March 28. Threatening BEM closure. Not yet attacking commercial ships. Yanbu: East-West pipeline still degraded (700K bpd offline from April 8-9 IRGC strike). Correlation: Dual-chokepoint probability ~30% (vs ~10% if independent). Correlation ~0.7+.

Suez Canal — 6.0 HIGH ↑

Status: Recovery stalled. BEM threat + Houthi war entry + Cape route entrenched.

Strait of Malacca — 4.5 MODERATE ↔

Status: Operating near capacity. Hormuz spillover in freight rates. MEPC 84 starts April 27.

Panama Canal — 3.0 LOW ↔

Status: Full operational capacity. Only major chokepoint unaffected. USTR fees suspended to Nov 2026.

Three Signals to Watch Tonight and Tomorrow

1. Iran well damage reports. If overflow damage materializes, the global supply picture darkens permanently.

2. MEPC 84 opening address (April 27). IMO Secretary-General Dominguez will set the tone — environmental session or crisis response?

3. Any phone contact between Trump and Iranian officials. The only remaining diplomatic channel. Zero indication it will be used.

Eagle Intelligence Five-Strait Scorecard — published every Eagle Intelligence cycle. Data as of April 26, 2026 22:00 PHT.

Eagle Intelligence. Operator-grade analysis for the maritime professional.